--- title: "Chaos case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chaos ($21.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 88.44% over 993 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Chaos](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Chaos A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=all) Price · $21.27 · 30.38 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.33 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.44% · 993 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 90.12% ±6.91 646 openings 30 days · 88.44% ±5.58 993 openings since tracking started · 88.44% ±5.58 993 openings 43.5% 70.8% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=24h) | 44 | 70.81% ±26.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=7d) | 646 | 90.12% ±6.91 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos) | 993 | 88.44% ±5.58 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chaos?window=all) | 993 | 88.44% ±5.58 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 993 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $200 285 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $84.70 121 coins | 4.4% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.70× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $83.30 119 coins | 15.5% | 26 | 35.7 | 0.73× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $29.87 42.67 coins | 15.5% | 110 | 99.3 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $29.02 41.46 coins | 18.0% | 125 | 119.2 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $27.74 39.63 coins | 10.0% | 78 | 69.5 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $24.22 34.6 coins | 7.5% | 56 | 59.6 | 0.94× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.86 34.09 coins | 12.3% | 105 | 99.3 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $17.47 24.95 coins | 6.3% | 71 | 69.5 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 10.0% | $12.48 17.83 coins | 6.5% | 95 | 99.3 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $3.42 4.88 coins | 2.7% | 152 | 148.9 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 18.3% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 0.3% | 168 | 181.7 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chaos) [P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $23.86 34.09 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $23.86 34.09 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $21.27 30.38 coins $27.74 39.63 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $3.42 4.88 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $23.86 34.09 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $21.27 30.38 coins $24.22 34.6 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $29.02 41.46 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.27 30.38 coins $29.02 41.46 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $21.27 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.27 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.81 | 90.91% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $20.82 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.82 | 90.89% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.7% classified 41.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 33.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt