--- title: "Cheap Thrills case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cheap Thrills ($20.36) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.59% over 1,813 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills rendered: 2026-11-11T18:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cheap Thrills](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cheap Thrills A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=all) Price · $20.36 · 29.08 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $18.51 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.59% · 1,813 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.67% ±32.72 109 openings 7 days · 90.57% ±8.75 1,542 openings 30 days · 89.59% ±8.08 1,813 openings since tracking started · 89.59% ±8.08 1,813 openings 61.5% 94.8% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=24h) | 109 | 94.67% ±32.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=7d) | 1,542 | 90.57% ±8.75 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills) | 1,813 | 89.59% ±8.08 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheap-thrills?window=all) | 1,813 | 89.59% ±8.08 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,813 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $128 183 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $113 161 coins | 30.4% | 79 | 90.7 | 0.87× | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $102 146 coins | 49.7% | 170 | 163.2 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 3.4% | 91 | 90.7 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $12.39 17.7 coins | 0.7% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $8.52 12.17 coins | 2.3% | 88 | 90.7 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.29 8.99 coins | 6.8% | 388 | 362.6 | 1.07× | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.15 7.35 coins | 1.4% | 99 | 90.7 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 1.8% | 200 | 181.3 | 1.10× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.75 2.5 coins | 1.9% | 332 | 362.6 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.48 2.11 coins | 1.6% | 349 | 362.6 | 0.96× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cheap-thrills) [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $1.48 2.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Fybzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fybzen) $20.36 29.08 coins $113 161 coins 5.54x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $1.48 2.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [Fybzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fybzen) $20.36 29.08 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $20.36 29.08 coins $1.48 2.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $20.36 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $20.35 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.16 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $20.16 | 90.91% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $20.17 | 90.92% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.17 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 14.0% classified 21.0% restricted 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt