--- title: "Checkmate case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Checkmate ($143.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 83.51% over 3,204 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Checkmate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Checkmate A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=all) Price · $143.16 · 205 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $130.15 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.51% · 3,204 openings, odds method Variance · 30.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 94 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 257 openings · below min 7 days · 85.02% ±20.72 2,693 openings 30 days · 83.51% ±18.99 3,204 openings since tracking started · 83.51% ±18.99 3,204 openings 2.0% 69.8% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=24h) | 257 | 69.65% ±67.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=7d) | 2,693 | 85.02% ±20.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate) | 3,204 | 83.51% ±19.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/checkmate?window=all) | 3,204 | 83.51% ±19.0 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,204 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 10,000 | $25K 35,730 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $9,342 13,345 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $8,869 12,670 coins | 34.1% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,787 9,695 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 12.2% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3,024 4,320 coins | 11.6% | 12 | 16.0 | 0.75× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $2,132 3,045 coins | 8.2% | 13 | 16.0 | 0.81× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 6.0% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $995 1,421 coins | 3.8% | 17 | 16.0 | 1.06× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $824 1,177 coins | 3.2% | 9 | 16.0 | 0.56× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $767 1,095 coins | 2.9% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $540 772 coins | 2.1% | 11 | 16.0 | 0.69× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $517 739 coins | 2.0% | 10 | 16.0 | 0.62× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $370 529 coins | 2.7% | 33 | 30.1 | 1.10× | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) | 1 in 200 | $365 522 coins | 1.4% | 22 | 16.0 | 1.37× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $216 308 coins | 1.7% | 38 | 32.0 | 1.19× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $190 271 coins | 0.7% | 11 | 16.0 | 0.69× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $174 249 coins | 0.7% | 21 | 16.0 | 1.31× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $174 249 coins | 1.3% | 22 | 32.0 | 0.69× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $151 216 coins | 0.6% | 9 | 16.0 | 0.56× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,514 | 1441.8 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,401 | 1441.8 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $143 205 coins $9,342 13,345 coins 65.25x 2026-11-09 20:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $143 205 coins $9,342 13,345 coins 65.25x 2026-11-09 02:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-10 12:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-10 09:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-09 19:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-09 05:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-09 04:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.95x 2026-11-09 04:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $143 205 coins $8,869 12,670 coins 61.84x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=checkmate) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $143 205 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $143 205 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 22 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $144 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $144 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed base 0.5% covert 6.6% high 0.5% epic 0.5% legendary 0.5% restricted 0.9% extraordinary 0.5% consumer 90.0% best hit $9,342 (65.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt