---
title: "Cheese case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cheese ($83.50) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 2,141 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cheese](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cheese

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=all)

Price · $83.50 · 119 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $75.91 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 2,141 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.06% ±17.07 194 openings

7 days · 88.57% ±6.09 1,542 openings

30 days · 88.54% ±5.18 2,141 openings

since tracking started · 88.54% ±5.18 2,141 openings

68.5% 86.3% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=24h) | 194 | 86.06% ±17.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=7d) | 1,542 | 88.57% ±6.09 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese) | 2,141 | 88.54% ±5.18 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cheese?window=all) | 2,141 | 88.54% ±5.18 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,141 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,465 9,235 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $404 577 coins | 5.3% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $198 283 coins | 7.8% | 57 | 64.2 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $174 249 coins | 5.7% | 54 | 53.5 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 13.5% | $172 246 coins | 30.6% | 282 | 289.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 67 | $157 224 coins | 3.1% | 29 | 32.1 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 13.5% | $142 203 coins | 25.3% | 279 | 288.8 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $86.80 124 coins | 4.6% | 91 | 85.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $83.30 119 coins | 7.7% | 133 | 149.9 | 0.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 12.0% | $57.08 81.55 coins | 9.0% | 276 | 256.9 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 286 | 299.7 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 312 | 299.7 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 317 | 299.7 | 1.06× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cheese)

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $142 203 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $86.80 124 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $172 246 coins 2.06x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $83.50 119 coins $172 246 coins 2.06x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[AUG | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-field-tested) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $83.50 119 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $57.08 81.55 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $83.50 119 coins $172 246 coins 2.06x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[AUG | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-field-tested) Hidden $83.50 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $83.50 119 coins $142 203 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $83.50 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $83.50 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $83.56 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $84.24 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 54.0% restricted 1.0% classified 3.0% consumer 42.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt