--- title: "Chemical case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chemical ($462.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 84.20% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Chemical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Chemical A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=all) Price · $462.96 · 661 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $420.87 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.20% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 35 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min 52.5% 81.5% 110.5% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 35.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=24h) | 9 | 81.50% ±28.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=7d) | 35 | 84.20% ±14.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical) | 35 | 84.20% ±14.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chemical?window=all) | 35 | 84.20% ±14.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $1,970 2,815 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,366 1,952 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,066 1,523 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $517 738 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $501 716 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $457 653 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 90.0% | $377 539 coins | 80.7% | 32 | 31.5 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $449 642 coins $525 750 coins 1.17x 2026-11-08 02:10 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) Hidden $449 642 coins $517 738 coins 1.15x 2026-11-07 23:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chemical) [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 06:24 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 01:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [SNUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SNUS) $463 661 coins $377 539 coins 0.81x 2026-11-09 17:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $463 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $449 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% extraordinary 3.0% legendary 3.0% classified 90.0% best hit $525 (1.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt