--- title: "ChickenDinner v2 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ChickenDinner v2 ($46.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 88.00% over 5,171 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [ChickenDinner v2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · ChickenDinner v2 A case on CSGORoll (partners, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=all) Price · $46.87 · 66.96 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $42.61 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.00% · 5,171 openings, odds method Variance · 16.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.26% ±46.10 289 openings 7 days · 87.62% ±12.22 4,236 openings 30 days · 88.00% ±11.07 5,171 openings since tracking started · 88.00% ±11.07 5,171 openings 22.5% 69.3% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=24h) | 289 | 69.26% ±46.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=7d) | 4,236 | 87.62% ±12.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2) | 5,171 | 88.00% ±11.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chickendinner-v2?window=all) | 5,171 | 88.00% ±11.1 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,171 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,465 9,235 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 6.4% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 9.2% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 6.4% | 17 | 10.3 | 1.64× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $856 1,223 coins | 4.0% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.06× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $816 1,166 coins | 3.8% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $754 1,077 coins | 4.4% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $532 760 coins | 4.4% | 14 | 18.1 | 0.77× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $474 677 coins | 2.2% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $402 574 coins | 1.9% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $378 540 coins | 4.9% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $348 497 coins | 5.6% | 35 | 35.2 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $286 409 coins | 4.7% | 32 | 36.2 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $188 269 coins | 11.0% | 113 | 129.3 | 0.87× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $105 150 coins | 2.0% | 34 | 41.4 | 0.82× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $91.00 130 coins | 5.0% | 139 | 121.5 | 1.14× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $90.30 129 coins | 10.6% | 240 | 258.6 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $84.00 120 coins | 5.9% | 154 | 155.1 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $78.40 112 coins | 4.6% | 144 | 129.3 | 1.11× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,310 | 1292.8 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,266 | 1292.8 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,577 | 1551.3 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 59.66x 2026-11-07 00:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $2,716 3,880 coins 57.95x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $2,716 3,880 coins 57.95x 2026-11-09 01:29 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.59x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-08 10:54 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-06 17:31 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-06 16:47 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) [mikeoochi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mikeoochi) $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-06 06:27 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $46.99 67.13 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 41.49x 2026-11-04 14:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chickendinner-v2) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-minimal-wear) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $46.87 66.96 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $46.87 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $46.73 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.99 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.7% extraordinary 0.1% classified 8.6% restricted 6.2% mil spec 3.3% consumer 80.0% best hit $2,804 (59.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt