---
title: "Chop Chop case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chop Chop ($370.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 84.10% over 442 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Chop Chop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Chop Chop

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=all)

Price · $370.10 · 529 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $336.45 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.10% · 442 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72 openings · below min

7 days · 82.92% ±29.49 365 openings

30 days · 84.10% ±26.79 442 openings

since tracking started · 84.10% ±26.79 442 openings

53.0% 123.8% 194.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=24h) | 72 | 127.18% ±66.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=7d) | 365 | 82.92% ±29.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop) | 442 | 84.10% ±26.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/chop-chop?window=all) | 442 | 84.10% ±26.8 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 445 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 10.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 222 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 333 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.25× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 11.6% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 87 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.20× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 8.7% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 3.9% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $799 1,142 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 8.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $784 1,120 coins | 9.3% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 31 | $445 636 coins | 4.3% | 9 | 14.5 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 20 | $410 585 coins | 6.1% | 23 | 22.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $410 585 coins | 10.5% | 46 | 38.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) | 20.0% | $49.90 71.29 coins | 3.0% | 91 | 89.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $45.15 64.5 coins | 2.7% | 88 | 89.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 30.0% | $35.25 50.35 coins | 3.1% | 141 | 133.5 | 1.06× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $370 529 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 47.52x 2026-11-10 15:31 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $374 535 coins $6,829 9,755 coins 18.25x 2026-11-04 18:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $374 535 coins $6,076 8,680 coins 16.24x 2026-11-08 06:25 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $374 535 coins $6,076 8,680 coins 16.24x 2026-11-05 00:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $370 529 coins $5,978 8,540 coins 16.15x 2026-11-10 01:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $370 529 coins $5,978 8,540 coins 16.15x 2026-11-08 19:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $374 535 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 10.83x 2026-11-04 13:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $374 535 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 10.83x 2026-11-03 18:31 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $374 535 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 10.83x 2026-11-03 14:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $370 529 coins $3,892 5,560 coins 10.52x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=chop-chop)

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $370 529 coins $1,018 1,454 coins 2.75x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $370 529 coins $410 585 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $370 529 coins $49.90 71.29 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $370 529 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $370 529 coins $49.90 71.29 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:10 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) [Henkie3310](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Henkie3310) $370 529 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $370 529 coins $410 585 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 07:27 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $370 529 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:25 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $370 529 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $370 529 coins $35.25 50.35 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $370 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $371 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $374 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 4.2% covert 95.8% best hit $17.6K (47.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt