--- title: "Cinema case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cinema ($6.40) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 89.01% over 4,290 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cinema](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cinema A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=all) Price · $6.40 · 9.14 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $5.81 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.01% · 4,290 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.49% ±8.12 367 openings 7 days · 88.91% ±2.64 3,671 openings 30 days · 89.01% ±2.45 4,290 openings since tracking started · 89.01% ±2.45 4,290 openings 77.5% 86.5% 95.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=24h) | 367 | 86.49% ±8.12 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=7d) | 3,671 | 88.91% ±2.64 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema) | 4,290 | 89.01% ±2.45 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cinema?window=all) | 4,290 | 89.01% ±2.45 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,390 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,176 | $39.15 55.93 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [Sticker \| dennis (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dennis-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 1,111 | $31.10 44.43 coins | 0.5% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.27× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $30.51 43.58 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 174 | $27.54 39.35 coins | 2.7% | 18 | 25.2 | 0.71× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $26.36 37.66 coins | 5.0% | 53 | 48.3 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 67 | $22.74 32.48 coins | 5.9% | 58 | 65.8 | 0.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 6.6% | 69 | 89.6 | 0.77× | | [Chroma 2 Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-2-case-key) | 1 in 32 | $13.30 19 coins | 7.1% | 125 | 136.1 | 0.92× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $11.45 16.36 coins | 7.9% | 173 | 175.6 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $9.82 14.03 coins | 8.4% | 241 | 219.5 | 1.10× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.26 10.37 coins | 6.2% | 214 | 219.5 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| arT (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-art-gold-austin-2025) | 1 in 19 | $5.70 8.14 coins | 5.3% | 212 | 237.1 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $5.17 7.38 coins | 5.1% | 250 | 250.2 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.35 6.22 coins | 5.8% | 377 | 338.0 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $4.26 6.08 coins | 8.1% | 463 | 484.7 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cut-out-well-worn) | 13.4% | $4.06 5.8 coins | 9.4% | 622 | 588.3 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) | 15.7% | $2.93 4.19 coins | 7.9% | 667 | 687.5 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| ENCE (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-holo-stockholm-2021) | 18.5% | $2.23 3.18 coins | 7.1% | 834 | 812.1 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cinema) [Tec-9 | Cut Out (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cut-out-well-worn) [gaygay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaygay) $6.40 9.14 coins $4.06 5.8 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Sticker | The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Sticker | The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Sticker | ENCE (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-minimal-wear) [User#89](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%2389) $6.40 9.14 coins $4.35 6.22 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC [Sticker | arT (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-art-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $5.70 8.14 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC [Sticker | ENCE (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC [Nova | Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $4.26 6.08 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 10:57 UTC [Sticker | arT (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-art-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $5.70 8.14 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [Sticker | ENCE (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $6.40 9.14 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.40 | 90.89% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $6.39 | 90.88% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.38 | 90.90% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.30 | 90.94% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.29 | 90.91% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.30 | 90.87% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.32 | 90.90% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 7.7% exotic 17.3% covert 0.1% extraordinary 1.1% base 3.1% consumer 11.7% mil spec 18.4% uncommon 5.4% Mythical 5.7% restricted 11.0% remarkable 18.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt