--- title: "Circus case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Circus ($180.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.12% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Circus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Circus A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=all) Price · $180.99 · 259 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $164.54 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.12% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 63.0% 87.0% 111.0% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=7d) | 24 | 87.12% ±23.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus) | 24 | 87.12% ±23.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/circus?window=all) | 24 | 87.12% ±23.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 133 | $704 1,005 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 400 | $603 862 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $561 801 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $299 427 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 67 | $285 407 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $284 406 coins | 12.1% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $178 254 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-factory-new) | 20.0% | $159 227 coins | 19.3% | 12 | 4.8 | 2.50× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 20.0% | $134 192 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 18.0% | $107 153 coins | 11.7% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $104 148 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $81.90 117 coins | 6.0% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=circus) [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $180 257 coins $111 159 coins 0.62x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 257 coins $81.90 117 coins 0.45x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $180 257 coins $160 228 coins 0.89x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) [d3ad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/d3ad) $180 257 coins $255 365 coins 1.42x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $180 257 coins $160 228 coins 0.89x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 257 coins $81.90 117 coins 0.45x 2026-11-05 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $180 257 coins $160 228 coins 0.89x 2026-11-04 21:09 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-factory-new) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $180 257 coins $160 228 coins 0.89x 2026-11-04 21:09 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 257 coins $81.90 117 coins 0.45x 2026-11-04 20:36 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $180 257 coins $81.90 117 coins 0.45x 2026-11-04 20:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $181 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $180 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.5% restricted 3.4% covert 53.1% mil spec 20.0% classified 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt