---
title: "Claim case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Claim ($60.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 30 items with odds, observed 94.56% over 69 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Claim](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Claim

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=all)

Price · $60.07 · 85.82 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $54.61 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.56% · 69 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 47 openings · below min

30 days · 69 openings · below min

since tracking started · 69 openings · below min

-0.5% 116.5% 233.5%

**Small sample.** 69 openings and 12.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=24h) | 4 | 95.64% ±137.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=7d) | 47 | 71.78% ±40.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim) | 69 | 94.56% ±33.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claim?window=all) | 69 | 94.56% ±33.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,083 1,547 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $895 1,279 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $748 1,068 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $561 801 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $474 677 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $414 591 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $304 434 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $279 398 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $175 250 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 118 | $157 224 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $118 168 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $101 144 coins | 22.1% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $81.90 117 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $74.20 106 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $72.80 104 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $56.39 80.56 coins | 3.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $52.74 75.35 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $41.85 59.78 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $41.38 59.11 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $39.37 56.24 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $33.10 47.29 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $31.04 44.34 coins | 4.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $26.49 37.84 coins | 2.7% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.84× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $21.74 31.06 coins | 4.0% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 11.0% | $19.25 27.5 coins | 3.9% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 14.0% | $3.83 5.47 coins | 1.0% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.35× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $59.91 85.58 coins $780 1,114 coins 13.02x 2026-11-04 14:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=claim)

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) [⍟ Xiro ⍟](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%8D%9F%20Xiro%20%E2%8D%9F) $60.07 85.82 coins $3.83 5.47 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $26.49 37.84 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $118 168 coins 1.96x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $81.90 117 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $3.83 5.47 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $31.04 44.34 coins 0.52x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $60.07 85.82 coins $304 434 coins 5.06x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $19.25 27.5 coins 0.32x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC

[P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $101 144 coins 1.68x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.07 85.82 coins $21.74 31.06 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $60.07 | 90.91% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $59.82 | 90.91% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.91 | 90.91% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.8% classified 48.1% extraordinary 6.2% restricted 8.0% best hit $780 (13.02x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt