--- title: "Claustrophobia case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Claustrophobia ($5.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 17 items with odds, observed 99.34% over 5,655 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Claustrophobia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Claustrophobia A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=all) Price · $5.67 · 8.1 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $5.16 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.34% · 5,655 openings, odds method Variance · 58.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 147.07% ±62.85 568 openings 7 days · 90.47% ±22.64 4,308 openings 30 days · 99.34% ±19.74 5,655 openings since tracking started · 99.34% ±19.74 5,655 openings 67.0% 138.8% 210.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=24h) | 568 | 147.07% ±62.8 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=7d) | 4,308 | 90.47% ±22.6 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia) | 5,655 | 99.34% ±19.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/claustrophobia?window=all) | 5,655 | 99.34% ±19.7 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,663 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,895 4,135 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,531 3,616 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $553 790 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $288 412 coins | 5.0% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.77× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $279 398 coins | 2.4% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.57× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $125 179 coins | 3.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 160 | $89.60 128 coins | 10.9% | 42 | 35.4 | 1.19× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $50.97 72.81 coins | 2.5% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $32.33 46.19 coins | 4.7% | 31 | 42.5 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $21.17 30.25 coins | 4.1% | 53 | 56.6 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $7.64 10.92 coins | 3.0% | 113 | 113.3 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $6.17 8.82 coins | 1.8% | 107 | 84.9 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.18 5.97 coins | 8.1% | 526 | 566.3 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Death's Head Demolition music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-deaths-head-demolition) | 26.0% | $3.97 5.67 coins | 20.0% | 1,487 | 1472.4 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.50 5 coins | 3.7% | 337 | 311.5 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| fEAR (Gold) \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fear-gold-shanghai-2024) | 26.0% | $1.83 2.62 coins | 9.2% | 1,494 | 1472.4 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $0.57 0.81 coins | 2.9% | 1,437 | 1472.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $2,895 4,135 coins 510.5x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 8.09 coins $2,531 3,616 coins 447.0x 2026-11-03 07:35 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) Hidden $5.66 8.09 coins $554 792 coins 97.90x 2026-11-03 21:42 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) [Z E U S'](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Z%20E%20U%20S') $5.71 8.15 coins $553 790 coins 96.93x 2026-11-08 17:33 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $288 412 coins 50.86x 2026-11-10 10:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=claustrophobia) [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Death's Head Demolition music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-deaths-head-demolition) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $3.97 5.67 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Death's Head Demolition music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-deaths-head-demolition) [UKKO123](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UKKO123) $5.67 8.1 coins $3.97 5.67 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fear-gold-shanghai-2024) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $32.33 46.19 coins 5.70x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fear-gold-shanghai-2024) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [Sticker | fEAR (Gold) | Shanghai 2024 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fear-gold-shanghai-2024) Hidden $5.67 8.1 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Death's Head Demolition music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-deaths-head-demolition) [csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll.com) $5.67 8.1 coins $3.97 5.67 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.67 | 90.94% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.69 | 90.86% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.71 | 90.87% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.66 | 90.94% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.7% restricted 29.7% classified 1.8% industrial 5.8% mil spec 10.0% high 26.0% extraordinary 26.0% best hit $2,895 (510.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt