--- title: "Clawed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Clawed ($52.14) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 85.49% over 140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Clawed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Clawed A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=all) Price · $52.14 · 74.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.40 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.49% · 140 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 86.56% ±14.82 114 openings 30 days · 85.49% ±13.38 140 openings since tracking started · 85.49% ±13.38 140 openings -0.5% 79.5% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=24h) | 2 | 47.06% ±111.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=7d) | 114 | 86.56% ±14.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed) | 140 | 85.49% ±13.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clawed?window=all) | 140 | 85.49% ±13.4 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $911 1,302 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $771 1,101 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $445 636 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $337 482 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) | 1 in 870 | $293 418 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $273 390 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $107 153 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 80 | $100 143 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $95.20 136 coins | 40.2% | 32 | 29.2 | 1.10× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $82.60 118 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $68.75 98.21 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.55× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $57.81 82.58 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $55.76 79.65 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $54.97 78.53 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $51.58 73.68 coins | 4.4% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $44.31 63.3 coins | 4.7% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $37.43 53.47 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.60× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 23.2% | $29.02 41.46 coins | 14.2% | 30 | 33.9 | 0.88× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 15.0% | $20.05 28.65 coins | 6.3% | 30 | 21.9 | 1.37× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 12.0% | $17.88 25.55 coins | 4.5% | 20 | 17.5 | 1.14× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 2.6% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=clawed) [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $52.14 74.49 coins $29.02 41.46 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.38x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $29.02 41.46 coins 0.56x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $52.14 74.49 coins $95.20 136 coins 1.83x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $17.88 25.55 coins 0.34x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $95.20 136 coins 1.83x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.38x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Pilot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-battle-scarred) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $82.60 118 coins 1.58x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $52.14 74.49 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.38x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.14 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.04 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.56 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% covert 55.1% extraordinary 1.3% restricted 24.0% rare 0.5% classified 19.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt