--- title: "Cleanup case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cleanup ($4.98) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.97% from 9 items with odds, observed 91.08% over 16.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cleanup](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cleanup A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=all) Price · $4.98 · 7.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.97% · EV $4.53 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.08% · 16.5K openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.74% ±8.52 2,845 openings 7 days · 91.35% ±3.83 14.2K openings 30 days · 91.08% ±3.55 16.5K openings since tracking started · 91.08% ±3.55 16.5K openings 81.5% 90.8% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=24h) | 2,845 | 90.74% ±8.52 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=7d) | 14.2K | 91.35% ±3.83 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup) | 16.5K | 91.08% ±3.55 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cleanup?window=all) | 16.5K | 91.08% ±3.55 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $555 793 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $40.98 58.55 coins | 2.3% | 51 | 41.4 | 1.23× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $33.52 47.88 coins | 66.6% | 1,482 | 1490.0 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $31.04 44.34 coins | 8.6% | 226 | 207.0 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $6.99 9.99 coins | 13.9% | 1,461 | 1490.0 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 10.5% | $3.10 4.43 coins | 7.2% | 1,710 | 1736.7 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 5,075 | 4966.8 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 3,326 | 3311.2 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,224 | 3311.2 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.85 6.93 coins $578 826 coins 119.2x 2026-11-06 16:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cleanup) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $3.10 4.43 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $4.98 7.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Hoen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hoen) $4.98 7.11 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $33.52 47.88 coins 6.73x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $33.52 47.88 coins 6.73x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Hoen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hoen) $4.98 7.11 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $4.98 7.11 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.98 | 90.97% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.02 | 90.94% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.02 | 90.90% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.86 | 90.92% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $4.86 | 90.96% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.85 | 90.96% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.89 | 90.85% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% classified 0.3% restricted 11.7% mil spec 9.0% consumer 70.0% best hit $578 (119.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.97 on average: an expected loss of $9.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt