---
title: "Clockwork case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Clockwork ($53.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 82.37% over 87 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Clockwork](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Clockwork

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=all)

Price · $53.55 · 76.5 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $48.68 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.37% · 87 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 63 openings · below min

30 days · 87 openings · below min

since tracking started · 87 openings · below min

42.0% 137.0% 232.0%

**Small sample.** 87 openings and 17.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=24h) | 9 | 136.90% ±94.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=7d) | 63 | 90.50% ±35.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork) | 87 | 82.37% ±30.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clockwork?window=all) | 87 | 82.37% ±30.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,309 1,870 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $811 1,159 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $348 497 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $335 478 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $246 351 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $158 226 coins | 19.5% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $148 211 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $118 169 coins | 6.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $115 164 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $110 157 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $99.40 142 coins | 24.5% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $97.30 139 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $78.40 112 coins | 12.9% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $57.08 81.55 coins | 8.2% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 56.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 48 | 48.7 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=clockwork)

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $53.55 76.5 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Shaw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shaw) $53.55 76.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $148 211 coins 2.76x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $57.08 81.55 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $53.55 76.5 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.55 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.68 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.75 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 43.6% classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.4% consumer 56.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt