---
title: "Close Combat case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Close Combat ($51.91) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 94.74% over 92 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Close Combat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Close Combat

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=all)

Price · $51.91 · 74.16 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.19 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.74% · 92 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 35 openings · below min

30 days · 92 openings · below min

since tracking started · 92 openings · below min

69.0% 107.8% 146.5%

**Small sample.** 92 openings and 18.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=7d) | 35 | 107.78% ±38.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat) | 92 | 94.74% ±23.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/close-combat?window=all) | 92 | 94.74% ±23.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $679 970 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $493 704 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $444 634 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50,000 | $435 622 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $368 526 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $356 508 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $309 442 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $192 274 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $183 261 coins | 5.8% | 5 | 1.4 | 3.62× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $146 209 coins | 12.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $115 164 coins | 7.3% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $110 157 coins | 23.3% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $91.00 130 coins | 9.6% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.83 79.76 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $44.47 63.53 coins | 5.7% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $44.31 63.3 coins | 7.0% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $15.88 22.69 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 16.0% | $10.81 15.44 coins | 3.7% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 13.5% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 2.8% | 16 | 12.4 | 1.29× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.45 6.36 coins | 1.9% | 13 | 18.4 | 0.71× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=close-combat)

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $4.41 6.3 coins 0.09x 2026-11-07 21:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $91.70 131 coins 1.78x 2026-11-07 21:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $41.40 59.14 coins 0.80x 2026-11-07 21:50 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Shit on](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shit%20on) $51.63 73.76 coins $9.68 13.83 coins 0.19x 2026-11-07 21:50 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $11.80 16.85 coins 0.23x 2026-11-07 18:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $56.27 80.39 coins 1.09x 2026-11-07 18:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $41.40 59.14 coins 0.80x 2026-11-07 18:07 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Szili](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Szili) $51.63 73.76 coins $9.68 13.83 coins 0.19x 2026-11-07 18:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $16.41 23.44 coins 0.32x 2026-11-07 17:07 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.63 73.76 coins $146 209 coins 2.83x 2026-11-07 17:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $51.91 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $51.83 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.63 | 90.90% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.6% classified 26.8% restricted 34.6% epic 0.1% mil spec 13.0% industrial 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt