--- title: "Cloud case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cloud ($4.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.30% over 11.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cloud](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cloud A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=all) Price · $4.34 · 6.2 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $3.95 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.30% · 11.6K openings, odds method Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.46% ±16.95 1,141 openings 7 days · 84.10% ±5.91 9,571 openings 30 days · 85.30% ±5.38 11.6K openings since tracking started · 85.30% ±5.38 11.6K openings 64.0% 81.5% 99.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.92% – 90.67%, 11,576 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=24h) | 1,141 | 81.46% ±16.9 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=7d) | 9,571 | 84.10% ±5.91 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud) | 11.6K | 85.30% ±5.38 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cloud?window=all) | 11.6K | 85.30% ±5.38 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $221 316 coins | 11.2% | 18 | 23.2 | 0.78× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $77.70 111 coins | 19.7% | 92 | 115.8 | 0.79× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.35 26.22 coins | 9.3% | 225 | 231.7 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.64 10.91 coins | 9.7% | 598 | 579.2 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $6.43 9.19 coins | 6.5% | 467 | 463.4 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 18.8% | $4.90 7 coins | 23.3% | 2,157 | 2177.8 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 19.0% | $3.38 4.83 coins | 16.3% | 2,265 | 2201.0 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 4.0% | 5,762 | 5792.0 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-08 07:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-07 02:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-06 16:32 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [Math\_77](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Math_77) $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-06 15:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-05 20:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [platypapi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/platypapi) $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-05 14:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-04 18:47 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [Kili1109](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kili1109) $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-04 14:50 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-04 14:36 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.40 6.28 coins $230 329 coins 52.39x 2026-11-04 12:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cloud) [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $6.43 9.19 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) [Dxp\_h1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dxp_h1) $4.34 6.2 coins $3.38 4.83 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $6.43 9.19 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) Hidden $4.34 6.2 coins $3.38 4.83 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $4.34 6.2 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.34 | 90.94% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.34 | 90.86% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.38 | 90.98% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.40 | 90.96% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.2% mil spec 52.0% industrial 5.0% restricted 4.0% classified 37.8% best hit $230 (52.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt