---
title: "Clown case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Clown ($287.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 73.29% over 680 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Clown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Clown

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=all)

Price · $287.75 · 411 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $261.59 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.29% · 680 openings, odds method

Variance · 27.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 63.59% ±86.66 138 openings

7 days · 77.53% ±44.14 526 openings

30 days · 73.29% ±38.76 680 openings

since tracking started · 73.29% ±38.76 680 openings

-0.5% 75.3% 151.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=24h) | 138 | 63.59% ±86.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=7d) | 526 | 77.53% ±44.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown) | 680 | 73.29% ±38.8 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/clown?window=all) | 680 | 73.29% ±38.8 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 23.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $1,939 2,770 coins | 22.2% | 16 | 20.4 | 0.78× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $917 1,310 coins | 7.0% | 19 | 13.6 | 1.40× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $846 1,209 coins | 10.3% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $816 1,166 coins | 3.1% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $624 891 coins | 4.8% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $603 862 coins | 18.5% | 56 | 54.4 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 0.3% | 277 | 272.0 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.41 0.59 coins | 0.1% | 274 | 272.0 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $30.1K 42,950 coins 104.5x 2026-11-09 20:17 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $288 411 coins $2,667 3,810 coins 9.27x 2026-11-08 21:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Zangetsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zangetsu) $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-08 02:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-07 15:44 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-04 03:14 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-04 00:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-04 00:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-04 00:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-04 00:05 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $292 418 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 6.98x 2026-11-03 22:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=clown)

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) Hidden $288 411 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $603 862 coins 2.10x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $603 862 coins 2.10x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) [Zoid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zoid) $288 411 coins $846 1,209 coins 2.94x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $288 411 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) Hidden $288 411 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) [Zoid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zoid) $288 411 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $288 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $288 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $292 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $292 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $292 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 5.4% remarkable 0.1% covert 14.6% mil spec 40.0% restricted 40.0% best hit $30.1K (104.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt