---
title: "Cobalt case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cobalt ($71.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 1,056 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cobalt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cobalt

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=all)

Price · $71.29 · 102 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $64.82 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 1,056 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.97% ±15.85 176 openings

7 days · 92.73% ±12.56 278 openings

30 days · 88.54% ±6.38 1,056 openings

since tracking started · 88.54% ±6.38 1,056 openings

79.5% 97.5% 115.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=24h) | 176 | 98.97% ±15.9 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=7d) | 278 | 92.73% ±12.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt) | 1,056 | 88.54% ±6.38 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cobalt?window=all) | 1,056 | 88.54% ±6.38 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,056 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $595 850 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $330 471 coins | 6.6% | 14 | 13.7 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $318 454 coins | 8.3% | 14 | 18.0 | 0.78× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $274 391 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $255 365 coins | 17.7% | 52 | 47.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $247 353 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $225 321 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $193 276 coins | 8.3% | 33 | 29.6 | 1.12× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $174 249 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 8.4 | 0.36× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $108 154 coins | 5.8% | 37 | 37.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $75.60 108 coins | 7.0% | 54 | 63.4 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 12.6% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 9.4% | 137 | 133.3 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 15.0% | $40.83 58.33 coins | 9.4% | 130 | 158.4 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $36.88 52.69 coins | 4.1% | 79 | 75.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 6.0% | 168 | 147.8 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 14.4% | $21.95 31.35 coins | 4.9% | 159 | 152.1 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 15.0% | $21.55 30.78 coins | 5.0% | 167 | 158.4 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $595 850 coins 8.26x 2026-11-03 11:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cobalt)

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $108 154 coins 1.51x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $71.29 102 coins $255 365 coins 3.58x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $40.83 58.33 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $21.95 31.35 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $27.74 39.63 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) Hidden $71.29 102 coins $36.88 52.69 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $71.29 102 coins $27.74 39.63 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.29 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.17 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.07 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 24.3% restricted 20.2% extraordinary 1.1% classified 40.0% mil spec 14.4% best hit $595 (8.26x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt