--- title: "Cocoon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cocoon ($94.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 93.83% over 6,090 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cocoon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cocoon A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=all) Price · $94.74 · 135 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $86.13 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.83% · 6,090 openings, odds method Variance · 12.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.36% ±28.81 575 openings 7 days · 91.42% ±9.01 5,838 openings 30 days · 93.83% ±8.83 6,090 openings since tracking started · 93.83% ±8.83 6,090 openings 72.0% 101.5% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=24h) | 575 | 101.36% ±28.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=7d) | 5,838 | 91.42% ±9.01 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon) | 6,090 | 93.83% ±8.83 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cocoon?window=all) | 6,090 | 93.83% ±8.83 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,090 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 24.0% | 74 | 60.9 | 1.22× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $1,713 2,447 coins | 19.9% | 59 | 60.9 | 0.97× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 18.6% | 52 | 60.9 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 12.0% | 72 | 60.9 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $646 923 coins | 7.5% | 52 | 60.9 | 0.85× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $617 882 coins | 7.2% | 66 | 60.9 | 1.08× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $385 550 coins | 4.5% | 58 | 60.9 | 0.95× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $216 309 coins | 2.5% | 57 | 60.9 | 0.94× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $181 258 coins | 2.1% | 65 | 60.9 | 1.07× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $151 216 coins | 1.8% | 58 | 60.9 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,860 | 1827.0 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,826 | 1827.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,791 | 1827.0 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-08 09:48 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-08 09:45 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-08 07:56 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-08 00:10 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 23:37 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 18:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [ChickenDinner CSGORoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ChickenDinner%20CSGORoll.com) $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 18:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 17:34 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 17:28 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $95.78 137 coins $2,076 2,965 coins 21.67x 2026-11-07 17:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cocoon) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $94.74 135 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $94.74 135 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 21.83x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $94.74 135 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $94.74 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $94.74 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $95.78 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% epic 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $2,076 (21.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt