---
title: "Code Red case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Code Red ($11.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 20 items with odds, observed 90.01% over 10.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Code Red](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Code Red

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=all)

Price · $11.16 · 15.94 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $10.14 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.01% · 10.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.56% ±10.16 1,452 openings

7 days · 91.15% ±4.78 6,643 openings

30 days · 90.01% ±3.74 10.9K openings

since tracking started · 90.01% ±3.74 10.9K openings

76.0% 86.8% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=24h) | 1,452 | 86.56% ±10.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=7d) | 6,643 | 91.15% ±4.78 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red) | 10.9K | 90.01% ±3.74 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/code-red?window=all) | 10.9K | 90.01% ±3.74 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,066 1,523 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $788 1,125 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $421 602 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $232 332 coins | 1.1% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.47× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $94.50 135 coins | 0.9% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $83.30 119 coins | 0.8% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.74× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $77.00 110 coins | 0.8% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $53.11 75.87 coins | 6.3% | 123 | 130.6 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $52.74 75.35 coins | 15.6% | 359 | 326.4 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 10.3% | 243 | 261.1 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $31.09 44.42 coins | 15.3% | 541 | 544.1 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $30.11 43.02 coins | 11.9% | 412 | 435.2 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $26.59 37.98 coins | 15.7% | 658 | 652.9 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $13.04 18.63 coins | 9.0% | 782 | 761.7 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.86 5.51 coins | 3.8% | 1,151 | 1088.1 | 1.06× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.22 1.75 coins | 1.3% | 1,194 | 1196.9 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.13 1.61 coins | 1.1% | 1,056 | 1088.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.99 1.41 coins | 1.5% | 1,574 | 1632.1 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.41 0.59 coins | 1.0% | 2,746 | 2718.6 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) [Galt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Galt) $11.15 15.93 coins $1,045 1,493 coins 93.72x 2026-11-06 17:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=code-red)

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $3.86 5.51 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) [Boppler1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Boppler1) $11.16 15.94 coins $13.04 18.63 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $3.86 5.51 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) [Boppler1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Boppler1) $11.16 15.94 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.16 15.94 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $11.16 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.15 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.14 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $11.17 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $11.15 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.17 | 90.89% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.4% covert 0.4% restricted 14.1% industrial 1.2% mil spec 58.0% Rare 15.0% best hit $1,045 (93.72x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt