--- title: "Comeback Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Comeback Case ($659.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 85.92% over 56 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Comeback Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Comeback Case A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=all) Price · $659.21 · 942 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $599.28 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.92% · 56 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 42 openings · below min 30 days · 56 openings · below min since tracking started · 56 openings · below min -0.5% 69.8% 140.0% **Small sample.** 56 openings and 10.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=24h) | 12 | 61.29% ±77.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=7d) | 42 | 90.99% ±41.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case) | 56 | 85.92% ±35.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/comeback-case?window=all) | 56 | 85.92% ±35.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.6K 16,550 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,125 8,750 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5,548 7,925 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 167 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $947 1,353 coins | 23.7% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 35.0% | $566 809 coins | 33.1% | 17 | 19.6 | 0.87× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $436 623 coins | 4.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $146 209 coins | 9.8% | 28 | 22.4 | 1.25× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $671 958 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 11.10x 2026-11-07 17:13 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $671 958 coins $2,979 4,255 coins 4.44x 2026-11-04 21:45 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $659 942 coins $1,559 2,227 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Zangetsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zangetsu) $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-08 02:30 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-07 17:13 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-03 17:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-03 17:02 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $671 958 coins $926 1,323 coins 1.38x 2026-11-03 17:02 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $671 958 coins $600 857 coins 0.89x 2026-11-07 17:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=comeback-case) [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $659 942 coins $566 809 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $659 942 coins $1,559 2,227 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $659 942 coins $566 809 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $659 942 coins $146 209 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $659 942 coins $566 809 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $659 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $671 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 7.7% covert 52.3% mil spec 40.0% best hit $7,448 (11.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt