---
title: "Composed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Composed ($164.14) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 45 items with odds, observed 151.05% over 17 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Composed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Composed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=all)

Price · $164.14 · 234 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $149.21 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 151.05% · 17 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 17 openings · below min

since tracking started · 17 openings · below min

64.5% 197.8% 331.0%

**Small sample.** 17 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=7d) | 8 | 205.56% ±125.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed) | 17 | 151.05% ±85.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/composed?window=all) | 17 | 151.05% ±85.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,417 | $4,197 5,995 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,333 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,939 2,770 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,688 2,411 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 250 | $980 1,400 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $931 1,330 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $844 1,205 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $827 1,182 coins | 6.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $768 1,097 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $708 1,011 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 250 | $658 940 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $535 764 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $532 760 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $517 739 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $497 710 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $466 666 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $402 574 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $398 568 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $390 557 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $337 482 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 400 | $329 470 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $328 468 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 250 | $321 459 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $267 382 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $263 375 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $230 328 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $225 321 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $224 320 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $206 294 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $203 290 coins | 8.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $188 269 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $181 259 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $137 195 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 15.0% | $117 167 coins | 11.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.78× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $110 157 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $104 148 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $95.90 137 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $95.20 136 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $76.30 109 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 15.9% | $12.50 17.85 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-well-worn) | 15.0% | $7.74 11.05 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $878 1,254 coins 5.39x 2026-11-04 19:37 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $706 1,008 coins 4.33x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=composed)

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $163 233 coins $268 383 coins 1.65x 2026-11-04 19:41 UTC

[Sticker | Edward (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $321 459 coins 1.97x 2026-11-04 19:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $163 233 coins $115 165 coins 0.71x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $706 1,008 coins 4.33x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $163 233 coins $93.10 133 coins 0.57x 2026-11-04 19:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $115 165 coins 0.71x 2026-11-04 19:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 233 coins $183 261 coins 1.12x 2026-11-04 19:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $163 233 coins $878 1,254 coins 5.39x 2026-11-04 19:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 45 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $163 | 90.91% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% extraordinary 2.5% covert 61.3% classified 3.8% legendary 0.1% restricted 17.1% exotic 0.3% industrial 15.0% best hit $878 (5.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt