--- title: "Compound case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Compound ($136.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 106.98% over 1,281 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Compound](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Compound A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=all) Price · $136.03 · 194 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $123.66 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.98% · 1,281 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.78% ±41.36 186 openings 7 days · 106.40% ±17.27 1,065 openings 30 days · 106.98% ±15.75 1,281 openings since tracking started · 106.98% ±15.75 1,281 openings 65.0% 107.0% 149.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.23% – 122.72%, 1,281 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=24h) | 186 | 106.78% ±41.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=7d) | 1,065 | 106.40% ±17.3 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound) | 1,281 | 106.98% ±15.7 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/compound?window=all) | 1,281 | 106.98% ±15.7 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,281 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 4.2% | 8 | 2.6 | 3.12× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 17.7% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 5.4% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 286 | $1,648 2,354 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 5.5% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $1,353 1,933 coins | 7.7% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $1,121 1,602 coins | 6.3% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,063 1,518 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 91 | $872 1,246 coins | 7.8% | 23 | 14.1 | 1.63× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $711 1,016 coins | 2.9% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $445 636 coins | 4.7% | 14 | 16.7 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $377 539 coins | 4.6% | 23 | 19.2 | 1.20× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 67 | $319 455 coins | 3.9% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $305 436 coins | 3.2% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $286 409 coins | 4.1% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $230 329 coins | 4.7% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $164 234 coins | 3.3% | 48 | 32.0 | 1.50× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $160 229 coins | 2.3% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 291 | 320.3 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 343 | 320.3 | 1.07× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-well-worn) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 366 | 384.3 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $136 194 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 41.81x 2026-11-09 15:53 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $136 194 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 41.80x 2026-11-08 16:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $136 194 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 19.22x 2026-11-08 19:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-08 03:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-05 10:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-04 14:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-03 21:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-03 16:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 196 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 18.90x 2026-11-03 16:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=compound) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $136 194 coins $1,063 1,518 coins 7.81x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $136 194 coins $164 234 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-well-worn) Hidden $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-well-worn) Hidden $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-well-worn) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $136 194 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $136 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $137 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.9% classified 3.6% legendary 0.4% epic 0.7% restricted 1.5% consumer 80.0% best hit $5,688 (41.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt