---
title: "Confetti case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Confetti ($35.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.35% over 992 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Confetti](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Confetti

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=all)

Price · $35.26 · 50.37 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $32.05 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.35% · 992 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84 openings · below min

7 days · 92.24% ±12.58 854 openings

30 days · 91.35% ±11.67 992 openings

since tracking started · 91.35% ±11.67 992 openings

77.5% 118.3% 159.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=24h) | 84 | 118.22% ±40.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=7d) | 854 | 92.24% ±12.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti) | 992 | 91.35% ±11.7 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confetti?window=all) | 992 | 91.35% ±11.7 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 992 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,737 2,481 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $475 678 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $305 436 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.02× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $260 371 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $148 211 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $103 147 coins | 64.2% | 187 | 198.4 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $84.00 120 coins | 2.1% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $30.04 42.91 coins | 5.6% | 77 | 59.5 | 1.29× |
| [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 25 | $27.60 39.43 coins | 3.4% | 34 | 39.7 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $21.55 30.79 coins | 4.7% | 79 | 69.4 | 1.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 13.0% | $11.38 16.25 coins | 4.6% | 134 | 129.0 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $5.74 8.2 coins | 1.5% | 69 | 81.3 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.43 2.05 coins | 0.9% | 197 | 198.4 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $1.32 1.88 coins | 0.8% | 197 | 198.4 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $34.69 49.56 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 51.25x 2026-11-05 22:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=confetti)

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $5.74 8.2 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $1.32 1.88 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $103 147 coins 2.92x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $30.04 42.91 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $21.55 30.79 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $35.26 50.37 coins $103 147 coins 2.92x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $35.26 50.37 coins $1.32 1.88 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $1.43 2.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $5.74 8.2 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.26 50.37 coins $103 147 coins 2.92x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.09 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $34.69 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.69 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.5% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 61.6% classified 0.8% exotic 4.0% restricted 13.0% best hit $1,778 (51.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt