--- title: "Confidential case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Confidential ($124.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 99.10% over 4,156 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Confidential](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Confidential A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=all) Price · $124.77 · 178 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $113.43 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.10% · 4,156 openings, odds method Variance · 33.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 101 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 441 openings · below min 7 days · 102.72% ±20.16 3,191 openings 30 days · 99.10% ±17.67 4,156 openings since tracking started · 99.10% ±17.67 4,156 openings 60.0% 114.8% 169.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=24h) | 441 | 114.55% ±54.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=7d) | 3,191 | 102.72% ±20.2 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential) | 4,156 | 99.10% ±17.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/confidential?window=all) | 4,156 | 99.10% ±17.7 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,156 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 21.3% | 22 | 13.7 | 1.60× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 303 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 17.4% | 14 | 13.7 | 1.02× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 303 | $5,817 8,310 coins | 16.9% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 303 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 13.4% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 9.6% | 6 | 13.7 | 0.44× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 303 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 4.4% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.87× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 303 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 3.1% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.80× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 303 | $939 1,341 coins | 2.7% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $846 1,209 coins | 2.5% | 19 | 13.7 | 1.39× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 303 | $823 1,176 coins | 2.4% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $767 1,095 coins | 2.2% | 18 | 13.7 | 1.31× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 303 | $523 747 coins | 1.5% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 303 | $488 697 coins | 1.4% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 1 in 303 | $194 277 coins | 0.6% | 7 | 13.7 | 0.51× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 263 | $106 152 coins | 0.4% | 15 | 15.8 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 32.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,297 | 1329.9 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 31.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,338 | 1288.4 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 32.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,310 | 1329.9 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-08 01:00 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-08 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-06 19:13 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Chris Handsome](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chris%20Handsome) $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-05 19:08 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Falken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Falken) $126 180 coins $7,448 10,640 coins 58.97x 2026-11-05 10:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=confidential) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Legend) $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $125 178 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $125 178 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $125 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $125 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $126 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.7% covert 3.7% epic 0.3% extraordinary 0.3% consumer 95.0% best hit $7,448 (58.97x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt