---
title: "Conflagration case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Conflagration ($17.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 24 items with odds, observed 87.83% over 2,297 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Conflagration](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Conflagration

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=all)

Price · $17.38 · 24.83 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.80 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.83% · 2,297 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.69% ±36.26 229 openings

7 days · 82.94% ±12.89 1,837 openings

30 days · 87.83% ±11.54 2,297 openings

since tracking started · 87.83% ±11.54 2,297 openings

40.0% 76.8% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=24h) | 229 | 76.69% ±36.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=7d) | 1,837 | 82.94% ±12.9 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration) | 2,297 | 87.83% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conflagration?window=all) | 2,297 | 87.83% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,297 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,818 | $906 1,295 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $599 855 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.96× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $538 769 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $426 609 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $409 584 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $304 434 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.74× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $260 371 coins | 16.4% | 15 | 23.0 | 0.65× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $253 361 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $172 245 coins | 13.0% | 31 | 27.6 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| ScreaM \| Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scream-cologne-2016) | 1 in 63 | $89.60 128 coins | 9.1% | 34 | 36.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $77.70 111 coins | 6.6% | 36 | 31.0 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 5.0% | 33 | 45.9 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $33.38 47.69 coins | 4.8% | 42 | 51.7 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $20.86 29.8 coins | 6.6% | 113 | 114.9 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| GuardiaN (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guardian-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 16 | $18.82 26.89 coins | 7.5% | 150 | 144.7 | 1.04× |
| [Krakow 2017 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/krakow-2017-challengers-holo-foil) | 1 in 25 | $18.73 26.76 coins | 4.7% | 84 | 91.9 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) | 1 in 11 | $4.07 5.81 coins | 2.3% | 224 | 206.7 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) | 10.0% | $4.00 5.72 coins | 2.5% | 227 | 229.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) | 1 in 11 | $3.45 4.93 coins | 2.0% | 205 | 206.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Copenhagen Flames (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-flames-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 14 | $2.81 4.01 coins | 1.2% | 152 | 160.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 10.0% | $2.56 3.66 coins | 1.6% | 232 | 229.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Fire in the Hole (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-in-the-hole-holo) | 11.0% | $1.27 1.81 coins | 0.9% | 261 | 252.7 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) | 18.7% | $0.52 0.75 coins | 0.6% | 441 | 429.5 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.24 24.63 coins $599 855 coins 34.71x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.24 24.63 coins $599 855 coins 34.71x 2026-11-06 14:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.24 24.63 coins $599 855 coins 34.71x 2026-11-06 02:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [cock guzel ♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/cock%20guzel%20%E2%99%A5) $17.24 24.63 coins $599 855 coins 34.71x 2026-11-04 13:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.24 24.63 coins $599 855 coins 34.71x 2026-11-03 03:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=conflagration)

[Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-seeing-red-foil) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $4.07 5.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $4.00 5.72 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $172 245 coins 9.87x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $17.38 24.83 coins $77.70 111 coins 4.47x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sticker | Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $3.45 4.93 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-flames-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $2.81 4.01 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $4.00 5.72 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Sticker | Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) Hidden $17.38 24.83 coins $3.45 4.93 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $17.38 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.37 | 90.92% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.22 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.24 | 90.89% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.7% restricted 5.1% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 3.5% high 1.6% remarkable 27.3% base 4.0% exotic 43.7% Rare 10.0% best hit $599 (34.71x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt