--- title: "Conquest case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Conquest ($47.60) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 82.56% over 75 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Conquest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Conquest A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=all) Price · $47.60 · 68 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $43.27 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.56% · 75 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 17 openings · below min 7 days · 65 openings · below min 30 days · 75 openings · below min since tracking started · 75 openings · below min -0.5% 56.8% 114.0% **Small sample.** 75 openings and 17.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=24h) | 17 | 54.96% ±58.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=7d) | 65 | 81.81% ±30.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest) | 75 | 82.56% ±28.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/conquest?window=all) | 75 | 82.56% ±28.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $913 1,305 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $207 296 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $174 249 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $141 202 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $111 159 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $109 155 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $103 147 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $88.20 126 coins | 14.3% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 12.0% | $85.40 122 coins | 23.7% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.44× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $68.73 98.18 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $48.90 69.86 coins | 4.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $46.82 66.88 coins | 7.0% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $43.76 62.52 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $37.46 53.52 coins | 6.9% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $32.44 46.34 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $30.32 43.32 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $26.36 37.66 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 10.0% | $21.54 30.77 coins | 5.0% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 14.0% | $14.16 20.23 coins | 4.6% | 14 | 10.5 | 1.33× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 19.4% | $8.58 12.26 coins | 3.8% | 10 | 14.5 | 0.69× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=conquest) [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $8.58 12.26 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $14.16 20.23 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $14.16 20.23 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $47.60 68 coins $46.82 66.88 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $14.16 20.23 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $37.46 53.52 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $8.58 12.26 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $47.60 68 coins $14.16 20.23 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $14.16 20.23 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $47.60 68 coins $88.20 126 coins 1.85x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.60 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.42 | 90.90% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.66 | 90.90% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.7% classified 43.0% restricted 17.3% extraordinary 6.0% mil spec 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt