--- title: "Construction case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Construction ($58.33) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 56.46% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Construction](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Construction A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=all) Price · $58.33 · 83.33 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $53.03 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 56.46% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 70.5% 141.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=7d) | 18 | 56.46% ±84.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction) | 18 | 56.46% ±84.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/construction?window=all) | 18 | 56.46% ±84.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,387 3,410 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,205 3,150 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,837 2,625 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,391 1,987 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,185 1,693 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $941 1,344 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $811 1,159 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $621 887 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $582 832 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $477 682 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $348 497 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 345 | $293 418 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $228 326 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $176 252 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $154 220 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $126 180 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $91.00 130 coins | 17.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $90.30 129 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $89.60 128 coins | 13.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $31.54 45.06 coins | 7.1% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.85× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $15.73 22.47 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 18.0% | $15.67 22.39 coins | 5.3% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.54× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $11.45 16.36 coins | 5.4% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=construction) [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $58.33 83.33 coins $15.67 22.39 coins 0.27x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.33 83.33 coins $11.45 16.36 coins 0.20x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.33 83.33 coins $31.54 45.06 coins 0.54x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.33 83.33 coins $31.54 45.06 coins 0.54x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $58.33 83.33 coins $15.67 22.39 coins 0.27x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $58.33 83.33 coins $91.00 130 coins 1.56x 2026-11-09 18:53 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $59.83 85.47 coins $15.72 22.46 coins 0.26x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) [Minorityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Minorityy) $59.83 85.47 coins $36.59 52.27 coins 0.61x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $59.83 85.47 coins $15.72 22.46 coins 0.26x 2026-11-04 21:36 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $59.83 85.47 coins $130 186 coins 2.18x 2026-11-04 21:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $58.33 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $59.02 | 90.90% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.83 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 26.1% covert 2.6% extraordinary 0.6% restricted 25.9% mil spec 19.9% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt