---
title: "Contagion case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Contagion ($24.80) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.79% over 627 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Contagion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Contagion

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=all)

Price · $24.80 · 35.43 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $22.55 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.79% · 627 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71 openings · below min

7 days · 80.79% ±17.64 493 openings

30 days · 84.79% ±15.65 627 openings

since tracking started · 84.79% ±15.65 627 openings

36.0% 83.0% 130.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=24h) | 71 | 83.22% ±46.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=7d) | 493 | 80.79% ±17.6 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion) | 627 | 84.79% ±15.6 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contagion?window=all) | 627 | 84.79% ±15.6 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 627 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $913 1,305 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $795 1,135 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-factory-new) | 1 in 27,027 | $764 1,091 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $582 832 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $344 492 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $333 475 coins | 8.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $242 346 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $153 219 coins | 15.0% | 11 | 13.8 | 0.80× |
| [Sticker \| ScreaM (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scream-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 18 | $102 146 coins | 24.9% | 40 | 34.5 | 1.16× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $81.20 116 coins | 11.2% | 26 | 19.4 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $27.04 38.63 coins | 7.0% | 42 | 36.4 | 1.15× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $16.46 23.51 coins | 4.9% | 28 | 42.0 | 0.67× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $13.26 18.95 coins | 3.6% | 40 | 38.9 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $8.42 12.03 coins | 2.3% | 46 | 38.2 | 1.20× |
| [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $8.35 11.93 coins | 3.3% | 60 | 56.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.94 8.49 coins | 2.1% | 50 | 49.5 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $5.77 8.24 coins | 2.1% | 53 | 52.0 | 1.02× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $4.35 6.22 coins | 1.8% | 43 | 59.6 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| FaZe Clan \| Katowice 2019 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-katowice-2019) | 13.2% | $2.41 3.44 coins | 1.4% | 78 | 82.5 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) | 15.2% | $0.62 0.89 coins | 0.4% | 106 | 95.0 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=contagion)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $5.77 8.24 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[Sticker | Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[Sticker | FaZe Clan | Katowice 2019 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-katowice-2019) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $2.41 3.44 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[Sticker | Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $24.80 35.43 coins $5.77 8.24 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $81.20 116 coins 3.27x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 05:47 UTC

[Sticker | Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 05:47 UTC

[Sticker | Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $24.80 35.43 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 05:47 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $24.80 35.43 coins $81.20 116 coins 3.27x 2026-11-11 05:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $24.80 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.79 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $24.81 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.77 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $24.78 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $24.70 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $24.72 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.75 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% legendary 0.0% restricted 35.1% classified 0.3% extraordinary 2.2% exotic 5.5% mil spec 9.8% Mil Spec Grade 8.3% consumer 9.5% high 13.2% violet 15.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt