---
title: "Contrast case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Contrast ($1.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.82% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.01% over 31.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Contrast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Contrast

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=all)

Price · $1.55 · 2.21 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.82% · EV $1.40 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.01% · 31.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.51% ±5.33 3,563 openings

7 days · 90.54% ±1.94 25.8K openings

30 days · 91.01% ±1.76 31.2K openings

since tracking started · 91.01% ±1.76 31.2K openings

86.5% 92.5% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=24h) | 3,563 | 92.51% ±5.33 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=7d) | 25.8K | 90.54% ±1.94 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast) | 31.2K | 91.01% ±1.76 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/contrast?window=all) | 31.2K | 91.01% ±1.76 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $105 150 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $64.01 91.44 coins | 0.9% | 10 | 6.2 | 1.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $6.56 9.37 coins | 1.2% | 80 | 78.0 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $5.96 8.51 coins | 2.1% | 135 | 156.1 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.57 7.96 coins | 0.4% | 23 | 31.2 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.93 5.61 coins | 16.8% | 1,822 | 1873.0 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.64 5.2 coins | 10.4% | 1,263 | 1248.7 | 1.01× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $3.46 4.94 coins | 3.7% | 463 | 468.3 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.28 4.69 coins | 2.3% | 323 | 312.2 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.91 4.15 coins | 10.3% | 1,667 | 1560.9 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $2.74 3.92 coins | 31.2% | 5,018 | 4994.7 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.63 3.76 coins | 5.6% | 949 | 936.5 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.18 3.12 coins | 7.8% | 1,583 | 1560.9 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 17.6% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 4.8% | 5,498 | 5494.2 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,206 | 6243.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,171 | 6243.4 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins $105 150 coins 67.87x 2026-11-10 17:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2.26 coins $104 149 coins 65.93x 2026-11-06 22:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2.26 coins $104 149 coins 65.93x 2026-11-06 15:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2.25 coins $104 149 coins 66.22x 2026-11-05 01:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2.25 coins $104 149 coins 66.22x 2026-11-04 14:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [Kinot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kinot) $1.58 2.25 coins $104 149 coins 66.22x 2026-11-04 09:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2.25 coins $104 149 coins 66.22x 2026-11-04 02:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) [AGGE ♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AGGE%20%E2%99%A1) $1.58 2.25 coins $104 149 coins 66.22x 2026-11-03 18:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=contrast)

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) [User#181](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23181) $1.55 2.21 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins $2.18 3.12 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) [maxos135](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/maxos135) $1.55 2.21 coins $2.18 3.12 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) [User#181](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23181) $1.55 2.21 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [maxos135](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/maxos135) $1.55 2.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Isaac (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-field-tested) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins $3.28 4.69 coins 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AUG | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.55 2.21 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [maxos135](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/maxos135) $1.55 2.21 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 2.54x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.55 | 90.82% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.55 | 90.77% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.55 | 91.00% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.58 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.58 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.58 | 90.78% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.58 | 91.01% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.58 | 90.94% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% restricted 8.8% mil spec 29.6% classified 5.5% industrial 16.0% consumer 40.0% best hit $105 (67.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.82 on average: an expected loss of $9.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt