---
title: "Coral case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Coral ($309.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 69.94% over 121 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Coral](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Coral

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=all)

Price · $309.15 · 442 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $281.04 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 69.94% · 121 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 67.75% ±33.22 114 openings

30 days · 69.94% ±32.24 121 openings

since tracking started · 69.94% ±32.24 121 openings

-0.5% 151.0% 302.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=24h) | 2 | 51.68% ±250.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=7d) | 114 | 67.75% ±33.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral) | 121 | 69.94% ±32.2 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/coral?window=all) | 121 | 69.94% ±32.2 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 133 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,895 4,135 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2,244 3,205 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 83 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $1,616 2,308 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 56 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 8.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 7.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $1,051 1,502 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $931 1,330 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $811 1,159 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $291 415 coins | 3.1% | 14 | 3.6 | 3.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $274 392 coins | 7.8% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $174 249 coins | 3.1% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.16× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $140 200 coins | 3.5% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 10.0% | $106 152 coins | 3.8% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 27.8% | $84.00 120 coins | 8.3% | 35 | 33.7 | 1.04× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $70.70 101 coins | 3.0% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $45.15 64.5 coins | 2.4% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $312 446 coins $2,832 4,045 coins 9.06x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $309 442 coins $1,616 2,308 coins 5.23x 2026-11-08 20:11 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $312 446 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 4.53x 2026-11-03 18:26 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $312 446 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $309 442 coins $1,108 1,583 coins 3.58x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $309 442 coins $1,108 1,583 coins 3.58x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $309 442 coins $931 1,330 coins 3.01x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) Hidden $312 446 coins $838 1,197 coins 2.68x 2026-11-04 20:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) Hidden $309 442 coins $811 1,159 coins 2.62x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=coral)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) Hidden $309 442 coins $274 392 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $309 442 coins $45.15 64.5 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $309 442 coins $291 415 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 11:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [Mrmccola2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mrmccola2) $309 442 coins $84.00 120 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 10:00 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [The other other guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20other%20other%20guy) $309 442 coins $291 415 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $309 442 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.23x 2026-11-10 09:08 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) Hidden $309 442 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.23x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) Hidden $309 442 coins $140 200 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 19:43 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) Hidden $309 442 coins $140 200 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $309 442 coins $84.00 120 coins 0.27x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $309 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $307 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $312 | 90.91% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 47.5% high 0.8% legendary 0.4% extraordinary 19.2% remarkable 1.8% classified 30.3% best hit $2,832 (9.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt