--- title: "Cosmos case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cosmos ($4.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 15 items with odds, observed 91.05% over 8,028 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos rendered: 2026-11-11T15:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cosmos](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cosmos A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=all) Price · $4.73 · 6.76 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $4.30 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.05% · 8,028 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.42% ±6.27 857 openings 7 days · 91.27% ±2.39 6,159 openings 30 days · 91.05% ±2.09 8,028 openings since tracking started · 91.05% ±2.09 8,028 openings 83.5% 90.5% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=24h) | 857 | 90.42% ±6.27 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=7d) | 6,159 | 91.27% ±2.39 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos) | 8,028 | 91.05% ±2.09 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cosmos?window=all) | 8,028 | 91.05% ±2.09 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,036 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $58.31 83.3 coins | 1.4% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 2.2% | 19 | 16.1 | 1.18× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $29.13 41.61 coins | 2.4% | 21 | 28.1 | 0.75× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.80 41.14 coins | 6.7% | 77 | 80.4 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $20.75 29.64 coins | 0.7% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $15.32 21.89 coins | 5.3% | 145 | 120.5 | 1.20× | | [P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.78 9.68 coins | 3.1% | 152 | 160.7 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.65 9.5 coins | 4.6% | 229 | 241.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.30 9 coins | 5.9% | 339 | 321.4 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-well-worn) | 18.9% | $4.74 6.77 coins | 20.9% | 1,532 | 1522.8 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) | 1 in 14 | $4.73 6.75 coins | 7.6% | 540 | 558.5 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 18.5% | $3.81 5.44 coins | 16.4% | 1,469 | 1486.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.28 4.68 coins | 3.8% | 398 | 401.8 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 18.9% | $2.56 3.66 coins | 11.3% | 1,613 | 1522.8 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) | 19.4% | $1.70 2.43 coins | 7.7% | 1,486 | 1555.0 | 0.96× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cosmos) [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) [epycT❤M.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/epycT%E2%9D%A4M.) $4.73 6.76 coins $3.81 5.44 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $3.81 5.44 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $4.73 6.76 coins $3.81 5.44 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $3.81 5.44 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.73 6.76 coins $6.78 9.68 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.73 | 90.92% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.73 | 90.92% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% mil spec 4.4% restricted 58.0% classified 4.5% uncommon 2.0% exotic 7.0% rare 5.0% remarkable 18.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt