--- title: "Countdown case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Countdown ($7.39) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 19 items with odds, observed 92.13% over 2,575 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Countdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Countdown A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=all) Price · $7.39 · 10.56 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $6.72 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.13% · 2,575 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.70% ±15.83 144 openings 7 days · 92.68% ±4.12 2,171 openings 30 days · 92.13% ±3.78 2,575 openings since tracking started · 92.13% ±3.78 2,575 openings 80.0% 96.5% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=24h) | 144 | 96.70% ±15.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=7d) | 2,171 | 92.68% ±4.12 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown) | 2,575 | 92.13% ±3.78 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/countdown?window=all) | 2,575 | 92.13% ±3.78 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,585 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $133 190 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $111 158 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $89.60 128 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $86.80 124 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $68.19 97.42 coins | 2.0% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $51.69 73.84 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $47.31 67.59 coins | 2.1% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $38.99 55.7 coins | 2.9% | 18 | 12.9 | 1.39× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $38.02 54.31 coins | 4.2% | 21 | 19.4 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $24.21 34.59 coins | 3.6% | 29 | 25.9 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.12 25.89 coins | 5.4% | 43 | 51.7 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 5.9% | 82 | 77.5 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $11.26 16.08 coins | 11.7% | 160 | 181.0 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $6.99 9.99 coins | 9.4% | 251 | 232.6 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $5.43 7.76 coins | 7.3% | 240 | 232.6 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 11.0% | $5.01 7.15 coins | 8.2% | 438 | 284.4 | 1.54× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $4.82 6.89 coins | 12.2% | 319 | 439.5 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $4.72 6.74 coins | 13.3% | 464 | 491.2 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Runtime (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-runtime-holo) | 19.9% | $2.88 4.12 coins | 8.6% | 500 | 515.4 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=countdown) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [G0DS4LT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/G0DS4LT) $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $5.43 7.76 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $13.29 18.98 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [Sticker | Runtime (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-runtime-holo) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [IPR17ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IPR17%E3%83%84) $7.39 10.56 coins $4.72 6.74 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.39 10.56 coins $5.43 7.76 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.39 | 90.89% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.39 | 90.92% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.39 | 90.93% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 12.3% covert 0.0% rare 2.1% restricted 11.7% uncommon 28.0% mil spec 26.0% remarkable 19.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt