---
title: "Covert case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Covert ($164.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 44 items with odds, observed 91.93% over 76 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Covert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Covert

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=all)

Price · $164.03 · 234 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $149.12 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.93% · 76 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 66 openings · below min

30 days · 76 openings · below min

since tracking started · 76 openings · below min

69.0% 93.3% 117.5%

**Small sample.** 76 openings and 14.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=7d) | 66 | 93.21% ±23.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert) | 76 | 91.93% ±22.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/covert?window=all) | 76 | 91.93% ±22.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,407 2,010 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $805 1,150 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $788 1,125 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $659 942 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $646 923 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $640 914 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $461 658 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $445 636 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $440 628 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $431 616 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $416 594 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $414 591 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 10.0% | $410 586 coins | 27.5% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $384 549 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $356 508 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $350 500 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $316 452 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $295 421 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $283 404 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $280 400 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $263 375 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $259 370 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $216 308 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $186 265 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $181 258 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $170 243 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 10.0% | $158 225 coins | 10.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $118 169 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 10.0% | $113 162 coins | 7.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $102 145 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $93.10 133 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $74.90 107 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $71.40 102 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $61.54 87.92 coins | 4.1% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $53.78 76.83 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $51.64 73.77 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $50.59 72.27 coins | 3.4% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $49.95 71.36 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 10.0% | $42.10 60.14 coins | 2.8% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $162 231 coins $680 971 coins 4.20x 2026-11-05 20:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=covert)

[★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $164 234 coins $71.40 102 coins 0.44x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $164 234 coins $42.10 60.14 coins 0.26x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $164 234 coins $53.78 76.83 coins 0.33x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) Hidden $164 234 coins $158 225 coins 0.96x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $164 234 coins $113 162 coins 0.69x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $164 234 coins $410 586 coins 2.50x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $263 376 coins 1.63x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $162 231 coins $117 167 coins 0.72x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $162 231 coins $46.60 66.57 coins 0.29x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $61.72 88.17 coins 0.38x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $165 | 90.91% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $162 | 90.91% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 90.2% extraordinary 9.8% best hit $680 (4.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt