--- title: "Cracked case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cracked ($17.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.36% over 2,588 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cracked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cracked A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=all) Price · $17.67 · 25.24 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $16.06 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.36% · 2,588 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.26% ±20.01 195 openings 7 days · 90.22% ±5.85 2,268 openings 30 days · 89.36% ±5.48 2,588 openings since tracking started · 89.36% ±5.48 2,588 openings 78.5% 99.3% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=24h) | 195 | 99.26% ±20.0 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=7d) | 2,268 | 90.22% ±5.85 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked) | 2,588 | 89.36% ±5.48 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cracked?window=all) | 2,588 | 89.36% ±5.48 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,588 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $96.60 138 coins | 1.2% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.55× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $88.20 126 coins | 16.5% | 67 | 77.6 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $78.40 112 coins | 4.9% | 26 | 25.9 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $78.40 112 coins | 24.4% | 122 | 129.4 | 0.94× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 1.5% | 10 | 12.9 | 0.77× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $47.59 67.98 coins | 17.8% | 167 | 155.3 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $29.14 41.63 coins | 14.5% | 220 | 207.0 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $19.36 27.66 coins | 18.1% | 372 | 388.2 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.34 0.48 coins | 0.4% | 548 | 517.6 | 1.06× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 21.3% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 0.4% | 524 | 551.2 | 0.95× | | [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 0.3% | 524 | 517.6 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cracked) [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Negev | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $78.40 112 coins 4.44x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) [᠌ ᠌Liwon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%A0%8C%20%E1%A0%8CLiwon) $17.67 25.24 coins $47.59 67.98 coins 2.69x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC [Negev | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) Hidden $17.67 25.24 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $17.67 25.24 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $17.67 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.67 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.75 | 90.92% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.53 | 90.89% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 16.7% classified 16.0% restricted 6.0% mil spec 61.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt