--- title: "Crash Test case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crash Test ($148.83) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 96.64% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test rendered: 2026-11-11T15:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crash Test](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crash Test A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=all) Price · $148.83 · 213 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $135.31 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.64% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 61.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 38.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 79.5% 96.5% 113.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 11.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=7d) | 16 | 96.64% ±16.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test) | 16 | 96.64% ±16.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crash-test?window=all) | 16 | 96.64% ±16.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $305 436 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $291 415 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 20.0% | $167 239 coins | 24.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 40.0% | $162 231 coins | 47.8% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.56× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $146 209 coins | 12.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $112 160 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $77.70 111 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $70.00 100 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $61.62 88.03 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $53.08 75.83 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $35.09 50.13 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crash-test) [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $169 241 coins 1.18x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) [Sloth](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sloth) $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) [Sloth](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sloth) $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:49 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $143 205 coins $146 209 coins 1.02x 2026-11-07 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $149 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $150 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 48.5% classified 40.0% mil spec 11.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt