--- title: "Crazy Train case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crazy Train ($4.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 9 items with odds, observed 90.67% over 11.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crazy Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crazy Train A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=all) Price · $4.10 · 5.85 coins Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $3.72 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.67% · 11.8K openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.67% ±7.45 1,061 openings 7 days · 89.95% ±2.44 9,908 openings 30 days · 90.67% ±2.24 11.8K openings since tracking started · 90.67% ±2.24 11.8K openings 80.5% 88.8% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=24h) | 1,061 | 88.67% ±7.45 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=7d) | 9,908 | 89.95% ±2.44 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train) | 11.8K | 90.67% ±2.24 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crazy-train?window=all) | 11.8K | 90.67% ±2.24 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $148 211 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $18.20 26 coins | 6.1% | 125 | 147.3 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $17.71 25.3 coins | 1.2% | 31 | 29.5 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 36.4% | 1,095 | 1060.6 | 1.03× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $8.51 12.16 coins | 20.6% | 1,065 | 1060.6 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) | 10.5% | $6.07 8.67 coins | 17.1% | 1,207 | 1237.4 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.98 4.26 coins | 16.0% | 2,382 | 2355.8 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.25 0.36 coins | 2.0% | 3,473 | 3535.5 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 2,406 | 2357.0 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crazy-train) [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $2.98 4.26 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) [Vobbe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vobbe) $4.10 5.85 coins $2.98 4.26 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $8.51 12.16 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $8.51 12.16 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $18.20 26 coins 4.44x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $4.10 5.85 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $4.10 5.85 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $6.07 8.67 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $4.10 5.85 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 3.68x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $4.10 | 90.96% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.15 | 90.87% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.95 | 90.95% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $3.95 | 90.93% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $3.96 | 90.89% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.90 | 90.89% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.0% classified 21.0% restricted 39.0% industrial 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt