---
title: "Creative case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Creative ($24.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 23 items with odds, observed 95.87% over 912 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Creative](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Creative

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=all)

Price · $24.18 · 34.55 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $21.98 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.87% · 912 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.79% ±38.27 111 openings

7 days · 94.54% ±14.43 799 openings

30 days · 95.87% ±13.52 912 openings

since tracking started · 95.87% ±13.52 912 openings

58.0% 96.8% 135.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=24h) | 111 | 96.79% ±38.3 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=7d) | 799 | 94.54% ±14.4 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative) | 912 | 95.87% ±13.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/creative?window=all) | 912 | 95.87% ±13.5 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 912 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $292 417 coins | 6.6% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $223 319 coins | 5.1% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $222 317 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $193 276 coins | 26.4% | 31 | 27.4 | 1.13× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $155 221 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $143 204 coins | 3.2% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $121 173 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $120 172 coins | 5.5% | 14 | 9.1 | 1.54× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $117 167 coins | 9.6% | 20 | 16.4 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 111 | $86.80 124 coins | 3.6% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $84.00 120 coins | 4.4% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 2.6% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $25.12 35.88 coins | 1.7% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $21.24 30.34 coins | 1.9% | 15 | 18.2 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $17.16 24.51 coins | 2.0% | 27 | 22.8 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $11.47 16.39 coins | 3.1% | 55 | 54.7 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 18.0% | $10.91 15.59 coins | 8.9% | 184 | 164.2 | 1.12× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.44 6.35 coins | 1.0% | 39 | 45.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.05 4.36 coins | 0.6% | 27 | 36.5 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.19 3.13 coins | 0.8% | 90 | 73.0 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.55 2.22 coins | 0.5% | 54 | 62.0 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 19.1% | $1.18 1.68 coins | 1.0% | 168 | 173.7 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 0.3% | 122 | 136.8 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=creative)

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $3.05 4.36 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $1.18 1.68 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $1.55 2.21 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $17.16 24.51 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $24.18 34.55 coins $11.47 16.39 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 05:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $1.18 1.68 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-factory-new) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $24.18 34.55 coins $3.05 4.36 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 05:06 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.18 34.55 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $24.18 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $24.18 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $24.18 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.19 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.89 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $24.11 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $24.11 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $24.11 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.12 | 90.92% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 1.8% extraordinary 1.0% covert 9.3% Classified 1.5% restricted 31.9% industrial 2.5% pink 6.0% mil spec 41.0% consumer 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt