--- title: "Criminal case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Criminal ($182.95) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 95.73% over 891 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Criminal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Criminal A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=all) Price · $182.95 · 261 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $166.31 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.73% · 891 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 136.17% ±54.37 124 openings 7 days · 105.54% ±25.58 564 openings 30 days · 95.73% ±20.37 891 openings since tracking started · 95.73% ±20.37 891 openings 74.5% 132.8% 191.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=24h) | 124 | 136.17% ±54.4 | +1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=7d) | 564 | 105.54% ±25.6 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal) | 891 | 95.73% ±20.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/criminal?window=all) | 891 | 95.73% ±20.4 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 891 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.3K 14,660 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $6,787 9,695 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 67 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 12.5% | 16 | 13.4 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| somebody (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 100 | $1,319 1,884 coins | 7.9% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,119 1,598 coins | 6.7% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 13.1% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1,089 1,555 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.57× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 6.1% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $895 1,279 coins | 5.4% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $827 1,182 coins | 7.5% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| EliGE (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-elige-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 25 | $450 643 coins | 10.8% | 39 | 35.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $360 514 coins | 3.2% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 59 | $356 508 coins | 3.6% | 15 | 15.1 | 1.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $302 432 coins | 1.8% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $285 407 coins | 3.4% | 22 | 17.8 | 1.23× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 377 | 356.4 | 1.06× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 323 | 356.4 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $187 267 coins $7,479 10,685 coins 40.08x 2026-11-04 22:13 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins $6,787 9,695 coins 37.10x 2026-11-10 13:41 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $183 261 coins $6,780 9,685 coins 37.06x 2026-11-10 16:26 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-08 08:19 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-08 03:07 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-07 15:45 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-04 19:11 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-04 19:08 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-03 14:16 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 7.58x 2026-11-03 14:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=criminal) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $183 261 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $183 261 coins $1,387 1,982 coins 7.58x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $183 261 coins $285 407 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $183 261 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $183 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.6% covert 5.4% extraordinary 7.0% epic 1.0% classified 3.5% legendary 1.5% consumer 80.0% best hit $7,479 (40.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt