---
title: "Crimson Rush case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Crimson Rush ($21.39) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 97.38% over 1,356 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crimson Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crimson Rush

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=all)

Price · $21.39 · 30.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.45 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.38% · 1,356 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.48% ±28.88 140 openings

7 days · 96.81% ±10.09 1,136 openings

30 days · 97.38% ±9.22 1,356 openings

since tracking started · 97.38% ±9.22 1,356 openings

51.0% 80.5% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=24h) | 140 | 80.48% ±28.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=7d) | 1,136 | 96.81% ±10.1 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush) | 1,356 | 97.38% ±9.22 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson-rush?window=all) | 1,356 | 97.38% ±9.22 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,356 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $304 434 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $249 356 coins | 18.6% | 30 | 19.7 | 1.53× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $200 286 coins | 6.2% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.61× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $144 205 coins | 2.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $82.60 118 coins | 7.6% | 29 | 24.4 | 1.19× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $62.39 89.13 coins | 7.7% | 24 | 32.5 | 0.74× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 10.1% | 51 | 43.4 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $30.11 43.02 coins | 6.6% | 56 | 57.6 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $19.81 28.3 coins | 10.2% | 121 | 135.6 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 17 | $17.08 24.4 coins | 5.2% | 78 | 80.0 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $12.87 18.38 coins | 4.3% | 105 | 88.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $11.31 16.16 coins | 4.4% | 97 | 101.7 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $10.33 14.75 coins | 4.2% | 121 | 108.5 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $8.56 12.23 coins | 4.0% | 117 | 122.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $5.34 7.63 coins | 2.5% | 115 | 122.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $4.49 6.42 coins | 2.5% | 136 | 149.2 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.65 5.21 coins | 1.3% | 85 | 94.9 | 0.90× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) | 12.0% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 0.8% | 181 | 162.7 | 1.11× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crimson-rush)

[Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $21.39 30.56 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $82.60 118 coins 3.86x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $11.31 16.16 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $30.11 43.02 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $4.49 6.42 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $5.34 7.63 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $249 356 coins 11.65x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $19.81 28.3 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $21.39 30.56 coins $11.31 16.16 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

[Sticker | Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $21.39 30.56 coins $17.08 24.4 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 20:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $21.39 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $21.38 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.36 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.76 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $21.76 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $21.74 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $21.75 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $21.78 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.76 | 90.92% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.6% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 41.8% exotic 5.9% industrial 6.5% classified 8.0% Rare 9.0% violet 7.0% base 12.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt