--- title: "Crimson case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Crimson ($83.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 88.00% over 1,764 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crimson](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crimson A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=all) Price · $83.68 · 120 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $76.07 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.00% · 1,764 openings, odds method Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 120.35% ±41.78 149 openings 7 days · 88.22% ±13.17 1,492 openings 30 days · 88.00% ±12.11 1,764 openings since tracking started · 88.00% ±12.11 1,764 openings 74.5% 118.8% 163.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=24h) | 149 | 120.35% ±41.8 | +1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=7d) | 1,492 | 88.22% ±13.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson) | 1,764 | 88.00% ±12.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crimson?window=all) | 1,764 | 88.00% ±12.1 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,770 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,677 12,395 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,258 3,225 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,932 2,760 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $484 692 coins | 3.2% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.24× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $455 650 coins | 12.0% | 29 | 35.4 | 0.82× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $445 635 coins | 11.7% | 39 | 35.4 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $441 630 coins | 18.5% | 60 | 56.5 | 1.06× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $412 588 coins | 5.4% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $295 421 coins | 11.6% | 51 | 53.1 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $255 365 coins | 26.9% | 136 | 141.6 | 0.96× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.0% | 340 | 354.0 | 0.96× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 340 | 354.0 | 0.96× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 359 | 354.0 | 1.01× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 382 | 354.0 | 1.08× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $4,617 6,595 coins 55.17x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $1,907 2,725 coins 22.63x 2026-11-08 03:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Son?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Son%3F) $84.29 120 coins $1,907 2,725 coins 22.63x 2026-11-04 21:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $1,907 2,725 coins 22.63x 2026-11-04 07:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $1,907 2,725 coins 22.63x 2026-11-03 09:26 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $509 727 coins 6.04x 2026-11-08 08:01 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $509 727 coins 6.04x 2026-11-05 17:29 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $84.29 120 coins $509 727 coins 6.04x 2026-11-04 20:48 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $84.29 120 coins $509 727 coins 6.04x 2026-11-04 13:54 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [brayden\_nguyenn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/brayden_nguyenn) $84.29 120 coins $509 727 coins 6.04x 2026-11-04 08:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crimson) [AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-well-worn) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-well-worn) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-battle-scarred) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $83.68 120 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.68 120 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $83.68 120 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $255 365 coins 3.05x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.68 120 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.68 120 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [AUG | Condemned (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-well-worn) Hidden $83.68 120 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $83.68 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $83.68 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $84.30 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $84.29 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.3% extraordinary 2.1% epic 0.2% legendary 3.5% industrial 60.0% consumer 20.0% best hit $4,617 (55.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt