---
title: "Crystal Ball case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Crystal Ball ($119.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 99.00% over 404 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crystal Ball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crystal Ball

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=all)

Price · $119.27 · 170 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $108.42 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.00% · 404 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 99.31% ±12.49 358 openings

30 days · 99.00% ±11.76 404 openings

since tracking started · 99.00% ±11.76 404 openings

52.5% 101.3% 150.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=24h) | 24 | 101.41% ±48.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=7d) | 358 | 99.31% ±12.5 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball) | 404 | 99.00% ±11.8 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal-ball?window=all) | 404 | 99.00% ±11.8 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 400 | $1,174 1,677 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,014 1,448 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 667 | $945 1,350 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 222 | $658 940 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.20× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $445 636 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $427 610 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $416 594 coins | 4.6% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 154 | $393 561 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $328 469 coins | 15.1% | 27 | 20.2 | 1.34× |
| [Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 33 | $321 459 coins | 8.9% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $258 369 coins | 1.9% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $239 341 coins | 24.2% | 42 | 44.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $168 240 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $153 219 coins | 8.5% | 24 | 24.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 11.7% | $120 171 coins | 13.0% | 45 | 47.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $110 157 coins | 8.1% | 29 | 32.3 | 0.90× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $9.82 14.03 coins | 1.8% | 79 | 80.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.53 2.18 coins | 0.2% | 51 | 60.6 | 0.84× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.39 1.99 coins | 0.2% | 69 | 60.6 | 1.14× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | DD (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $120 171 coins $1,174 1,677 coins 9.78x 2026-11-05 17:46 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $120 171 coins $945 1,350 coins 7.88x 2026-11-07 18:25 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $120 171 coins $945 1,350 coins 7.88x 2026-11-06 14:17 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $120 171 coins $945 1,350 coins 7.88x 2026-11-05 01:57 UTC

[Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $119 170 coins $658 940 coins 5.52x 2026-11-10 21:25 UTC

[Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $119 170 coins $658 940 coins 5.52x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC

[Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $120 171 coins $658 940 coins 5.48x 2026-11-08 12:35 UTC

[Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $120 171 coins $658 940 coins 5.48x 2026-11-08 06:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crystal-ball)

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Kwontol](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kwontol) $119 170 coins $239 341 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $119 170 coins $239 341 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 08:07 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) [Baduci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baduci) $119 170 coins $9.82 14.03 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:57 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) [M4n1aK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/M4n1aK) $119 170 coins $9.82 14.03 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 02:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) [Elite Orion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elite%20Orion) $119 170 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Byxan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Byxan) $119 170 coins $120 171 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Jakymowsky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jakymowsky) $119 170 coins $120 171 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $119 170 coins $120 171 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 22:15 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $119 170 coins $1.39 1.99 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $119 170 coins $120 171 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 21:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% covert 19.5% extraordinary 12.9% restricted 5.0% classified 31.0% rare 1.5% mil spec 15.0% consumer 15.0% best hit $1,174 (9.78x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt