---
title: "Crystal case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Crystal ($25.58) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 25 items with odds, observed 100.24% over 505 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Crystal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Crystal

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=all)

Price · $25.58 · 36.54 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $23.26 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.24% · 505 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 90.70% ±23.68 316 openings

30 days · 100.24% ±18.63 505 openings

since tracking started · 100.24% ±18.63 505 openings

31.5% 90.5% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=24h) | 54 | 90.66% ±58.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=7d) | 316 | 90.70% ±23.7 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal) | 505 | 100.24% ±18.6 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/crystal?window=all) | 505 | 100.24% ±18.6 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $776 1,108 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 571 | $484 691 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $414 591 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $384 549 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $365 522 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $160 229 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $120 172 coins | 6.0% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $115 164 coins | 4.9% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $113 162 coins | 6.3% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $109 155 coins | 19.8% | 25 | 21.5 | 1.16× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $104 148 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.98× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $86.80 124 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $80.50 115 coins | 5.2% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $43.49 62.13 coins | 7.5% | 12 | 20.2 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $29.08 41.55 coins | 2.5% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $25.44 36.34 coins | 4.9% | 25 | 22.7 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $18.35 26.22 coins | 4.7% | 36 | 30.3 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $15.52 22.17 coins | 1.1% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.69 16.7 coins | 2.5% | 39 | 25.3 | 1.54× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $10.56 15.09 coins | 5.0% | 55 | 55.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $9.28 13.26 coins | 2.8% | 34 | 35.4 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 16.0% | $4.66 6.66 coins | 3.2% | 75 | 80.8 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) | 14.0% | $3.14 4.48 coins | 1.9% | 63 | 70.7 | 0.89× |
| [Music Kit \| bbno$, u mad! music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-bbno-u-mad) | 18.0% | $2.23 3.18 coins | 1.7% | 88 | 90.9 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.81 36.87 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 41.31x 2026-11-03 20:29 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $25.58 36.54 coins $776 1,108 coins 30.32x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=crystal)

[PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.58 36.54 coins $10.56 15.09 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.58 36.54 coins $115 164 coins 4.49x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) [Elite Orion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elite%20Orion) $25.58 36.54 coins $109 155 coins 4.24x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Necro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Necro) $25.58 36.54 coins $104 148 coins 4.05x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $25.58 36.54 coins $4.66 6.66 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:03 UTC

[SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) [Elite Orion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elite%20Orion) $25.58 36.54 coins $11.69 16.7 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:03 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) [Byxan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Byxan) $25.58 36.54 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 01:03 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) [dale](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dale) $25.58 36.54 coins $18.35 26.22 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 01:03 UTC

[Music Kit | bbno$, u mad! music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-bbno-u-mad) Hidden $25.58 36.54 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [Elite Orion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elite%20Orion) $25.58 36.54 coins $4.66 6.66 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.58 | 90.92% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.84 | 90.91% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.81 | 90.90% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.3% covert 13.6% mil spec 13.0% classified 15.4% industrial 1.7% restricted 7.0% Legendary 16.0% remarkable 14.0% high 18.0% best hit $1,066 (41.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt