--- title: "CSGORoll 2020 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CSGORoll 2020 ($12.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 89.34% over 1,368 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [CSGORoll 2020](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · CSGORoll 2020 A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=all) Price · $12.89 · 18.41 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $11.72 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.34% · 1,368 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.83% ±36.61 117 openings 7 days · 90.70% ±11.32 1,240 openings 30 days · 89.34% ±10.78 1,368 openings since tracking started · 89.34% ±10.78 1,368 openings 32.5% 69.8% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=24h) | 117 | 69.83% ±36.6 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=7d) | 1,240 | 90.70% ±11.3 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020) | 1,368 | 89.34% ±10.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2020?window=all) | 1,368 | 89.34% ±10.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,368 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $286 409 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $189 270 coins | 16.1% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $113 161 coins | 9.6% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $103 147 coins | 8.8% | 4 | 13.7 | 0.29× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $51.72 73.88 coins | 4.4% | 20 | 13.7 | 1.46× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 3.4% | 11 | 13.7 | 0.80× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 10.0% | $32.23 46.04 coins | 27.5% | 143 | 136.8 | 1.05× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 6.2% | 44 | 33.5 | 1.31× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 12.5% | $9.55 13.64 coins | 10.2% | 167 | 171.0 | 0.98× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.66 6.66 coins | 6.0% | 224 | 205.2 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 4.2% | 205 | 205.2 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 1.3% | 246 | 273.6 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.69 0.99 coins | 1.2% | 275 | 273.6 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=csgoroll-2020) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $0.69 0.99 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $12.89 18.41 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $12.89 18.41 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) Hidden $12.89 18.41 coins $32.23 46.04 coins 2.50x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.89 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $12.91 | 90.92% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $12.91 | 90.90% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $12.91 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.90 | 90.92% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% mil spec 42.5% Legendary 15.0% classified 15.0% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt