--- title: "CSGORoll 2024 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CSGORoll 2024 ($7.06) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 26 items with odds, observed 91.48% over 10.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [CSGORoll 2024](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · CSGORoll 2024 A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=all) Price · $7.06 · 10.08 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $6.42 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.48% · 10.1K openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.72% ±18.42 838 openings 7 days · 91.62% ±5.90 8,315 openings 30 days · 91.48% ±5.36 10.1K openings since tracking started · 91.48% ±5.36 10.1K openings 67.5% 86.8% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=24h) | 838 | 86.72% ±18.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=7d) | 8,315 | 91.62% ±5.90 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024) | 10.1K | 91.48% ±5.36 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2024?window=all) | 10.1K | 91.48% ±5.36 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $243 347 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $177 253 coins | 19.3% | 72 | 70.5 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $167 238 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.99× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $150 214 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $111 159 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.79× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 7.7% | 56 | 50.4 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $97.30 139 coins | 0.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $77.70 111 coins | 1.2% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.5% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $52.95 75.64 coins | 15.7% | 171 | 191.4 | 0.89× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $41.17 58.82 coins | 1.6% | 22 | 25.2 | 0.87× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $38.12 54.45 coins | 1.2% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $34.94 49.92 coins | 1.6% | 41 | 30.2 | 1.36× | | [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $30.09 42.98 coins | 11.7% | 269 | 251.9 | 1.07× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $20.01 28.59 coins | 1.1% | 28 | 35.3 | 0.79× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $10.60 15.14 coins | 2.0% | 116 | 120.9 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $9.51 13.59 coins | 1.3% | 102 | 90.7 | 1.12× | | [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $7.81 11.15 coins | 1.8% | 156 | 151.1 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.77 6.82 coins | 3.3% | 469 | 453.4 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.98 5.68 coins | 3.1% | 476 | 503.8 | 0.94× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $2.74 3.92 coins | 5.1% | 1,281 | 1209.0 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.63 3.76 coins | 2.9% | 696 | 705.3 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $2.53 3.61 coins | 5.9% | 1,492 | 1511.3 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.19 3.13 coins | 2.7% | 773 | 806.0 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.11 1.58 coins | 3.1% | 1,765 | 1813.5 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 19.7% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 1.2% | 2,017 | 1981.1 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=csgoroll-2024) [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $1.11 1.58 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $2.53 3.61 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-battle-scarred) [Doktoraiai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Doktoraiai) $7.06 10.08 coins $2.53 3.61 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $7.06 10.08 coins $2.19 3.13 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $2.53 3.61 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $7.06 10.08 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.06 | 90.93% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.06 | 90.87% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.96 | 90.90% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.00 | 90.87% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.5% restricted 38.7% classified 0.4% industrial 14.7% extraordinary 0.2% blue 1.5% consumer 15.0% mil spec 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt