--- title: "CSGOROLL 2025 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CSGOROLL 2025 ($19.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 96.34% over 4,568 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [CSGOROLL 2025](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · CSGOROLL 2025 A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=all) Price · $19.61 · 28.01 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $17.82 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.34% · 4,568 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.35% ±24.47 280 openings 7 days · 96.62% ±6.19 4,408 openings 30 days · 96.34% ±6.08 4,568 openings since tracking started · 96.34% ±6.08 4,568 openings 58.0% 83.3% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=24h) | 280 | 83.35% ±24.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=7d) | 4,408 | 96.62% ±6.19 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025) | 4,568 | 96.34% ±6.08 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2025?window=all) | 4,568 | 96.34% ±6.08 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,568 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $863 1,233 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $493 705 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,111 | $388 554 coins | 2.0% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $300 428 coins | 5.0% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $214 305 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| wayLander (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-waylander-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 400 | $183 261 coins | 2.6% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.40× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $120 172 coins | 6.8% | 46 | 45.7 | 1.01× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 2.8% | 21 | 22.8 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $82.60 118 coins | 3.0% | 30 | 29.7 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $78.40 112 coins | 17.6% | 183 | 182.7 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $62.86 89.8 coins | 7.1% | 103 | 91.4 | 1.13× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 17.3% | 292 | 274.1 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) | 25.0% | $7.69 10.98 coins | 10.8% | 1,172 | 1142.0 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) | 20.0% | $6.87 9.82 coins | 7.7% | 864 | 913.6 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) | 10.0% | $6.83 9.76 coins | 3.8% | 449 | 456.8 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) | 30.0% | $4.56 6.52 coins | 7.7% | 1,360 | 1370.4 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) [Fslayer90](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fslayer90) $19.37 27.67 coins $1,008 1,440 coins 52.04x 2026-11-06 23:35 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $1,008 1,440 coins 52.04x 2026-11-06 18:19 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) [chrilton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/chrilton) $19.37 27.67 coins $1,008 1,440 coins 52.04x 2026-11-04 15:54 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $853 1,218 coins 44.02x 2026-11-06 13:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $516 737 coins 26.64x 2026-11-06 11:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $516 737 coins 26.64x 2026-11-06 11:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $516 737 coins 26.64x 2026-11-06 09:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) Hidden $19.37 27.67 coins $516 737 coins 26.64x 2026-11-05 18:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=csgoroll-2025) [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $6.87 9.82 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $62.86 89.8 coins 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $120 172 coins 6.14x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $19.61 28.01 coins $78.40 112 coins 4.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $6.87 9.82 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $19.61 28.01 coins $6.83 9.76 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $19.61 28.01 coins $6.83 9.76 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.61 | 90.90% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.42 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.37 | 90.92% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.8% covert 1.9% restricted 0.3% mil spec 10.0% rare 2.0% exotic 85.0% best hit $1,008 (52.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt