---
title: "CSGORoll 2026 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CSGORoll 2026 ($59.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 31 items with odds, observed 76.93% over 243 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [CSGORoll 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · CSGORoll 2026

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=all)

Price · $59.79 · 85.41 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $54.35 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.93% · 243 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 73.30% ±38.07 197 openings

30 days · 76.93% ±34.26 243 openings

since tracking started · 76.93% ±34.26 243 openings

34.5% 73.3% 112.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=7d) | 197 | 73.30% ±38.1 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026) | 243 | 76.93% ±34.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/csgoroll-2026?window=all) | 243 | 76.93% ±34.3 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 243 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33,333 | $10.3K 14,660 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,028 10,040 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| sdy (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sdy-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 500 | $1,221 1,744 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 833 | $1,130 1,614 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $695 993 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $437 624 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $436 623 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $435 621 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $336 480 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $307 438 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $282 403 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $226 323 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $207 296 coins | 2.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $206 294 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $193 275 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| Zeus (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 133 | $186 265 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $143 204 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $125 179 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $118 168 coins | 8.7% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $101 144 coins | 9.3% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $92.40 132 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [Audience Participation Parcel other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/audience-participation-parcel) | 1 in 33 | $88.20 126 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [ESL One Cologne 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-legends) | 1 in 12 | $61.17 87.39 coins | 9.1% | 19 | 19.6 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 12.0% | $16.92 24.17 coins | 3.7% | 34 | 29.2 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $15.03 21.47 coins | 4.1% | 35 | 36.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 25.0% | $11.45 16.35 coins | 5.3% | 62 | 60.8 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 18.0% | $8.51 12.16 coins | 2.8% | 48 | 43.7 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=csgoroll-2026)

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-well-worn) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $59.79 85.41 coins $11.45 16.35 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-well-worn) [Zaph](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zaph) $59.79 85.41 coins $11.45 16.35 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[ESL One Cologne 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-legends) Hidden $59.79 85.41 coins $61.17 87.39 coins 1.02x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC

[ESL One Cologne 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-legends) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $59.79 85.41 coins $61.17 87.39 coins 1.02x 2026-11-10 06:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) Hidden $59.79 85.41 coins $15.03 21.47 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:30 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $59.79 85.41 coins $118 168 coins 1.97x 2026-11-10 06:30 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) [OrcGazmas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/OrcGazmas) $59.79 85.41 coins $307 438 coins 5.13x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $59.79 85.41 coins $8.51 12.16 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

[Audience Participation Parcel other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/audience-participation-parcel) Hidden $59.79 85.41 coins $88.20 126 coins 1.48x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [Zaph](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zaph) $59.79 85.41 coins $15.03 21.47 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $59.79 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $60.17 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $60.39 | 90.91% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $60.35 | 90.91% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.0% covert 13.0% extraordinary 1.3% high 0.1% classified 70.5% epic 0.8% legendary 0.3% restricted 1.0% mil spec 2.0% base 11.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt