--- title: "CT-Spawn case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CT-Spawn ($31.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 89.75% over 1,298 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn rendered: 2026-11-11T20:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [CT-Spawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · CT-Spawn A case on CSGORoll (csgo, 5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=all) Price · $31.77 · 45.38 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $28.88 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.75% · 1,298 openings, odds method Variance · 24.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 141 openings · below min 7 days · 98.52% ±30.32 1,014 openings 30 days · 89.75% ±26.76 1,298 openings since tracking started · 89.75% ±26.76 1,298 openings 30.5% 112.8% 195.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=24h) | 141 | 112.61% ±81.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=7d) | 1,014 | 98.52% ±30.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn) | 1,298 | 89.75% ±26.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ct-spawn?window=all) | 1,298 | 89.75% ±26.8 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,298 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,426 3,465 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,387 3,410 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,407 2,010 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,156 1,651 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.42× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 3.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 6.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $915 1,307 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $457 653 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $429 613 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $348 497 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $300 429 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $300 428 coins | 3.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $289 413 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.92× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $219 313 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $164 234 coins | 2.6% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $158 226 coins | 2.7% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $93.80 134 coins | 2.4% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $78.40 112 coins | 1.5% | 13 | 7.1 | 1.82× | | ['Two Times' McCoy \| TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) | 30.0% | $13.79 19.7 coins | 14.3% | 408 | 389.4 | 1.05× | | ['Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) | 30.0% | $12.73 18.18 coins | 13.2% | 355 | 389.4 | 0.91× | | [Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) | 35.0% | $5.35 7.65 coins | 6.5% | 467 | 454.3 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $2,387 3,410 coins 75.14x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $1,407 2,010 coins 44.29x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $1,407 2,010 coins 44.29x 2026-11-08 18:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $32.44 46.34 coins $1,159 1,656 coins 35.74x 2026-11-05 22:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $32.44 46.34 coins $1,159 1,656 coins 35.74x 2026-11-04 14:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $1,156 1,651 coins 36.38x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $1,156 1,651 coins 36.38x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $32.44 46.34 coins $1,093 1,561 coins 33.69x 2026-11-08 01:35 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $32.44 46.34 coins $1,093 1,561 coins 33.69x 2026-11-05 05:30 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $1,033 1,475 coins 32.50x 2026-11-10 05:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ct-spawn) [Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $5.35 7.65 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-field-tested) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $78.40 112 coins 2.47x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) [Petrrr csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Petrrr%20csgoroll.com) $31.77 45.38 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC [Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $5.35 7.65 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) Hidden $31.77 45.38 coins $13.79 19.7 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $31.77 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.79 | 90.90% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.44 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 0.7% extraordinary 0.1% classified 1.5% legendary 0.1% restricted 2.1% mil spec 0.5% superior 60.0% violet 35.0% best hit $2,387 (75.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt