---
title: "Cursed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cursed ($30.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 84.04% over 619 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cursed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cursed

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=all)

Price · $30.02 · 42.88 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $27.29 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.04% · 619 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68 openings · below min

7 days · 87.83% ±19.27 533 openings

30 days · 84.04% ±17.89 619 openings

since tracking started · 84.04% ±17.89 619 openings

19.5% 74.0% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=24h) | 68 | 73.97% ±53.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=7d) | 533 | 87.83% ±19.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed) | 619 | 84.04% ±17.9 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed?window=all) | 619 | 84.04% ±17.9 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 267 | $754 1,077 coins | 10.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 125 | $354 506 coins | 10.4% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $279 398 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $186 266 coins | 20.5% | 16 | 18.6 | 0.86× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $160 228 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $152 217 coins | 6.7% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $132 189 coins | 4.8% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 267 | $126 180 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $122 175 coins | 4.5% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $99.40 142 coins | 4.4% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $12.27 17.53 coins | 13.5% | 174 | 185.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $9.53 13.62 coins | 10.5% | 193 | 185.7 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $5.37 7.67 coins | 5.9% | 193 | 185.7 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [sirwins.a.not](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sirwins.a.not) $29.74 42.48 coins $754 1,077 coins 25.35x 2026-11-07 22:18 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $29.74 42.48 coins $754 1,077 coins 25.35x 2026-11-06 23:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cursed)

[MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $5.37 7.67 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $30.02 42.88 coins $5.37 7.67 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $5.37 7.67 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $9.53 13.62 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $160 228 coins 5.32x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) [Manz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Manz) $30.02 42.88 coins $5.37 7.67 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.02 42.88 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.02 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.02 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.74 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.4% classified 64.3% extraordinary 0.9% rare 0.4% restricted 30.0% best hit $754 (25.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt