---
title: "Cyclone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cyclone ($71.60) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 94 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Cyclone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Cyclone

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=all)

Price · $71.60 · 102 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.09 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 94 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 81 openings · below min

30 days · 94 openings · below min

since tracking started · 94 openings · below min

33.5% 136.5% 239.5%

**Small sample.** 94 openings and 17.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=24h) | 10 | 136.50% ±102.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=7d) | 81 | 84.32% ±35.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone) | 94 | 89.17% ±33.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cyclone?window=all) | 94 | 89.17% ±33.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,197 5,995 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $225 321 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $191 273 coins | 14.7% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| COLDYY1 (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldyy1-gold-london-2018) | 10.0% | $181 259 coins | 27.9% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $136 194 coins | 6.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.77× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $118 169 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $82.60 118 coins | 12.7% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) | 10.8% | $61.96 88.52 coins | 10.3% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $61.13 87.33 coins | 9.4% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 15.0% | $19.25 27.5 coins | 4.4% | 7 | 14.1 | 0.50× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 15.0% | $17.67 25.25 coins | 4.1% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.57 3.67 coins | 0.7% | 26 | 16.9 | 1.54× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=cyclone)

[P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $71.60 102 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[Sticker | COLDYY1 (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldyy1-gold-london-2018) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $181 259 coins 2.53x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $191 273 coins 2.67x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [Byxan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Byxan) $71.60 102 coins $61.13 87.33 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $2.57 3.67 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $136 194 coins 1.90x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $61.96 88.52 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-battle-scarred) [Kermgg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kermgg) $71.60 102 coins $82.60 118 coins 1.15x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-factory-new) [BadKarma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BadKarma) $71.60 102 coins $61.96 88.52 coins 0.87x 2026-11-10 22:55 UTC

[Sticker | COLDYY1 (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldyy1-gold-london-2018) Hidden $71.60 102 coins $181 259 coins 2.53x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.60 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.46 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $74.40 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% covert 13.1% mil spec 5.0% extraordinary 20.0% classified 18.0% consumer 10.8% industrial 15.0% restricted 18.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt